Chievo v Milan II prediction · Serie D - Girone B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Chievo 1–2 Milan II CHIEVO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chievo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.650

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chievo win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chievo 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Chievo v Milan II
27′Milan II score on 26′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
27′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Chievo 0–1 Milan II
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Milan II win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Chievo win 15%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–22–63
31′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
38′Chievo find the net on 38′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–34–31
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Chievo 1–1 Milan II
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Chievo 1–1 Milan II
46′SECOND HALF Chievo 1–1 Milan II
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Milan II win 29%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
60′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–46–25
68′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–22
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
80′Chievo are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 14–74–13
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Chievo
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
85′A goal for Milan II on 85′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–92
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chievo 1–2 Milan II
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Chievo win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Milan II win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
86′We said Chievo at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–7–92
FTFULL TIME Chievo 1–2 Milan II
FTChievo 1–2 Milan II · Chievo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chievo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chievo 40%, draw 25%, Milan II 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Chievo v Milan IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chievo win40%

Draw25%

Milan II win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chievo

Milan II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
9	Milan II	5	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chievo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Chievo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chievo v Milan II~~1.58 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chievo win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Milan II win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Chievo or draw	65%	–	–
Chievo clean sheet	24%	–	–
Milan II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.5 6.8 5.1 2.5 1 7.4 11.3 7.8 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chievo down, Milan II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,817 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chievo at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Milan II away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Chievo, 1.45 for Milan II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–1 MIL · CHI 1–3 MIL · MIL 3–2 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept

CHIEVO

WWWLWD4–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–1

MILAN II

WLWWL4–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	7	+8	18
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
3	Leon	7	+5	12
4	Caldiero Terme	7	+3	12
5	Piacenza	6	+6	11
6	Villa Valle	7	+3	10
7	Pro Palazzolo	7	−3	10
8	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	7	+1	9
9	Milan II	5	0	9
10	Brusaporto	7	−2	9
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7
15	Pavonese	6	−4	7
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	7	−9	2