Brusaporto v Nibbiano & Valtidone prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Brusaporto 0–1 Nibbiano & Valtidone NIBBIANO & VALTIDONE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nibbiano & Valtidone win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nibbiano & Valtidone win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nibbiano & Valtidone was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Brusaporto v Nibbiano & Valtidone
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Nibbiano & Valtidone win 33%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
57′We said Nibbiano & Valtidone at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 23–51–26
61′We said Nibbiano & Valtidone at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
FTFULL TIME Brusaporto 0–1 Nibbiano & Valtidone
FTBrusaporto 0–1 Nibbiano & Valtidone · Nibbiano & Valtidone win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nibbiano & Valtidone are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brusaporto 33%, draw 29%, Nibbiano & Valtidone 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Brusaporto v Nibbiano & ValtidoneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brusaporto win33%

Draw29%

Nibbiano & Valtidone win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brusaporto

Nibbiano & Valtidone

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nibbiano & valtidone winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Nibbiano & Valtidone a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brusaporto v Nibbiano & Valtidone~~1.11 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brusaporto win	33%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Nibbiano & Valtidone win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Brusaporto or draw	62%	–	–
Brusaporto clean sheet	30%	–	–
Nibbiano & Valtidone clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.5 11.5 7.3 3.0 1 10.4 13.3 7.8 3.2 2 6.0 7.1 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brusaporto down, Nibbiano & Valtidone across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,817 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Brusaporto at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nibbiano & Valtidone away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Brusaporto, 1.22 for Nibbiano & Valtidone. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

BRUSAPORTO

WLWWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

NIBBIANO & VALTIDONE

WWWWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	7	+8	18
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
3	Leon	7	+5	12
4	Caldiero Terme	7	+3	12
5	Piacenza	6	+6	11
6	Villa Valle	7	+3	10
7	Pro Palazzolo	7	−3	10
8	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	7	+1	9
9	Milan II	5	0	9
10	Brusaporto	7	−2	9
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7
15	Pavonese	6	−4	7
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	7	−9	2