Valenzana v Sanremese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Valenzana 1–1 Sanremese SANREMESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanremese win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.778

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanremese win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sanremese 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
4′Little has changed for our model: Sanremese 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–29–45
27′25′ and it is 0–1: Sanremese have scored. 0–1 · 7–18–75
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
38′25′ and it is 0–1: Sanremese have scored. 0–1 · 6–18–76
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sanremese win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Valenzana 0–1 Sanremese
46′SECOND HALF Valenzana 0–1 Sanremese
90′⚽ GOAL · 25' Valenzana 0–1 Sanremese
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Valenzana 1–1 Sanremese
FTFULL TIME Valenzana 1–1 Sanremese
FTValenzana 1–1 Sanremese · Sanremese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Valenzana win27%

Draw29%

Sanremese win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Valenzana

Sanremese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanremese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Sanremese a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valenzana win	27%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Sanremese win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Valenzana or draw	55%	–	–
Valenzana clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sanremese clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.4 13.1 8.9 4.0 1 9.5 12.9 8.1 3.6 2 4.8 5.9 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valenzana down, Sanremese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valenzana at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sanremese away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Valenzana, 1.33 for Sanremese. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 VAL · VAL 1–1 SAN

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

VALENZANA

LLLDLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

SANREMESE

DWLDLW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0