Valenzana v Ligorna prediction · Serie D - Girone A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ValenzanaDrawLigorna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ligorna 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ligorna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valenzana 19%, draw 21%, Ligorna 59%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Valenzana v LigornaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Valenzana win19%

Draw21%

Ligorna win59%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valenzana

Ligorna

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ligorna winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market51%

Us59%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ligorna a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valenzana v Ligorna~~1.09 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~17 v 5

~~The market · Ligorna win~~51% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ligorna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valenzana win	19%	22%	−3
Draw	21%	27%	−6
Ligorna win	59%	51%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	50%	+11
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Valenzana or draw	41%	49%	−8
Valenzana clean sheet	14%	–	–
Ligorna clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 5.1 8.5 8.7 6.0 3.3 1 4.6 9.7 9.2 6.3 3.5 2 2.7 5.1 5.0 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valenzana down, Ligorna across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,890 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valenzana at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ligorna away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Valenzana, 2.12 for Ligorna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAL 1–0 LIG · LIG 2–0 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

VALENZANA

LDLWDL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

LIGORNA

LWWWWL2–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1