Sestri Levante v Saluzzo prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sestri LevanteDrawSaluzzo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sestri Levante 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sestri Levante are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sestri Levante 46%, draw 27%, Saluzzo 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Sestri Levante v SaluzzoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sestri Levante win46%

Draw27%

Saluzzo win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

VenueGiuseppe Sivori

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sestri Levante

Saluzzo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sestri levante winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market39%

Us46%

~~Market~~39%

We make Sestri Levante a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sestri Levante v Saluzzo~~1.48 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~15 v 11

~~The market · Sestri Levante win~~39% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sestri Levante win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sestri Levante win	46%	39%	+7
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Saluzzo win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	67%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	22%	+3
Sestri Levante or draw	73%	69%	+4
Sestri Levante clean sheet	35%	–	–
Saluzzo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.9 8.0 4.5 1 11.2 12.5 6.4 2.3 2 8.5 8.7 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sestri Levante down, Saluzzo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,891 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sestri Levante at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Saluzzo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Sestri Levante, 1.07 for Saluzzo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–2 SES · SES 2–5 SAL · SAL 0–1 SES · SES 2–1 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

SESTRI LEVANTE

LDLWDL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

SALUZZO

WDDLDL3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1