Sestri Levante v Celle Varazze prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Sestri Levante 1–1 Celle Varazze SESTRI LEVANTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sestri Levante win~~58%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.958

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sestri Levante win at 58%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sestri Levante was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
4′Much as we predicted: Sestri Levante was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–18
41′A goal for Celle Varazze on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–28–53
43′A goal for Celle Varazze on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–54
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sestri Levante win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sestri Levante win: 58% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Celle Varazze win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Sestri Levante win 18%)
46′SECOND HALF Sestri Levante 0–1 Celle Varazze
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sestri Levante 1–1 Celle Varazze
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Sestri Levante 2–1 Celle Varazze
FTFULL TIME Sestri Levante 1–1 Celle Varazze
FTSestri Levante 1–1 Celle Varazze · Sestri Levante win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sestri Levante win58%

Draw23%

Celle Varazze win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueGiuseppe Sivori

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sestri Levante

Celle Varazze

7Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sestri levante winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market56%

Us58%

~~Market~~56%

We make Sestri Levante a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sestri levante win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sestri Levante win	58%	56%	+2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Celle Varazze win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	−1
Sestri Levante or draw	82%	82%	0
Sestri Levante clean sheet	41%	–	–
Celle Varazze clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 5.7 2.8 1 11.6 10.9 4.8 2 10.6 9.3 4.2 3 6.5 5.7 2.6 4 3.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sestri Levante down, Celle Varazze across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sestri Levante at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Celle Varazze away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Sestri Levante, 0.91 for Celle Varazze. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CEL 1–0 SES · SES 3–1 CEL

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

SESTRI LEVANTE

WLLDLW2–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

CELLE VARAZZE

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0