Sanremese v Sestri Levante prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Sanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante SANREMESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanremese win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.388

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanremese win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sanremese was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Sanremese v Sestri Levante
11′Sanremese find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
11′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sanremese win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
41′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Sanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante
46′SECOND HALF Sanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante
60′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Sanremese win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
71′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Sanremese win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
86′We published Sanremese at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Sanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante
FTSanremese 1–0 Sestri Levante · Sanremese win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanremese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sanremese 40%, draw 30%, Sestri Levante 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sanremese v Sestri LevanteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sanremese win40%

Draw30%

Sestri Levante win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sanremese

Sestri Levante

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanremese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Sanremese a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sanremese v Sestri Levante~~1.20 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~12 v 13

~~The market · Sanremese win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sanremese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sanremese win	40%	49%	−9
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Sestri Levante win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Sanremese or draw	70%	76%	−6
Sanremese clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sestri Levante clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 12.2 10.6 5.6 1 12.7 13.3 6.4 2.2 2 7.9 7.6 3.8 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sanremese down, Sestri Levante across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sanremese at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sestri Levante away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sanremese, 1.00 for Sestri Levante. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SES 0–2 SAN · SAN 1–2 SES · SAN 1–0 SES · SES 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

SANREMESE

WLDLWD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

SESTRI LEVANTE

LLDLWD1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1