Saluzzo v Chisola prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Saluzzo 0–3 Chisola SALUZZO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saluzzo win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.652

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.603

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saluzzo win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Saluzzo 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Saluzzo v Chisola
27′Chisola find the net on 27′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
27′We said Saluzzo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Saluzzo 0–2 Chisola
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Saluzzo win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Chisola win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Saluzzo win 4%)
45′HALF-TIME Saluzzo 0–2 Chisola
46′SECOND HALF Saluzzo 0–2 Chisola
56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
82′A goal for Chisola on 81′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Saluzzo 0–3 Chisola
FTFULL TIME Saluzzo 0–3 Chisola
FTSaluzzo 0–3 Chisola · Saluzzo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Saluzzo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Saluzzo 38%, draw 27%, Chisola 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Saluzzo v ChisolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Saluzzo win38%

Draw27%

Chisola win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saluzzo

Chisola

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saluzzo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Saluzzo a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saluzzo v Chisola~~1.35 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~9 v 5

~~The market · Saluzzo win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Saluzzo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saluzzo win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Chisola win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Saluzzo or draw	66%	63%	+3
Saluzzo clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chisola clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.4 8.9 5.9 2.5 1 9.6 12.6 7.5 3.2 2 6.7 8.0 5.0 2.2 3 3.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saluzzo down, Chisola across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saluzzo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chisola away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Saluzzo, 1.26 for Chisola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–1 SAL · SAL 2–3 CHI · CHI 2–0 SAL · SAL 3–0 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

SALUZZO

WWDDLD2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

CHISOLA

WDLDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1