Millesimo v Borgosesia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia MILLESIMO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Millesimo win~~49%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Millesimo win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Millesimo v Borgosesia
2′Much as we predicted: Millesimo was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
4′Much as we predicted: Millesimo was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
45′⚽ GOAL · 36' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
45′HALF-TIME Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
46′SECOND HALF Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
90′⚽ GOAL · 24' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
90′⚽ GOAL · 27' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
90′⚽ GOAL · 36' Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
FTFULL TIME Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia
FTMillesimo 3–0 Borgosesia · Millesimo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Millesimo win49%

Draw27%

Borgosesia win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Millesimo

Borgosesia

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · millesimo winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

49% The market41%

Us49%

~~Market~~41%

We make Millesimo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · millesimo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Millesimo win	49%	41%	+9
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Borgosesia win	23%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	−1
Millesimo or draw	77%	71%	+5
Millesimo clean sheet	41%	–	–
Borgosesia clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 8.0 3.9 1 13.0 12.3 5.5 2 9.8 8.6 4.0 3 4.9 4.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Millesimo down, Borgosesia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Millesimo at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Borgosesia away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Millesimo, 0.92 for Borgosesia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

MILLESIMO

LWWLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

BORGOSESIA

LDDWDL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0