Ligorna v Bra prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Ligorna 1–2 Bra LIGORNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ligorna win~~51%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.081

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ligorna win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ligorna was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Ligorna v Bra
7′A red card for Ligorna on 7′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 50–27–23
7′🟥 RED CARD · 7' Ligorna
18′A goal for Bra on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–25–52
18′We said Ligorna at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ligorna 0–1 Bra
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ligorna win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Bra win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Ligorna win 23%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Ligorna win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Ligorna win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
31′We said Ligorna at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' Bra
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ligorna win: 51% at kick-off, 42% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Ligorna win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bra win 22%)
45′We said Ligorna at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Ligorna win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
FTFULL TIME Ligorna 1–2 Bra
FTLigorna 1–2 Bra · Ligorna win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ligorna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ligorna 51%, draw 25%, Bra 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ligorna v BraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ligorna win51%

Draw25%

Bra win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ligorna

Bra

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
15	Bra	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ligorna winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market58%

Us51%

~~Market~~58%

We make Ligorna a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ligorna v Bra~~1.67 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~3 v 15

~~The market · Ligorna win~~58% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ligorna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ligorna win	51%	58%	−7
Draw	25%	25%	0
Bra win	23%	17%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Ligorna or draw	77%	83%	−6
Ligorna clean sheet	37%	–	–
Bra clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 8.1 6.9 3.7 1 11.1 11.7 5.7 2.0 2 9.2 8.9 4.5 3 5.2 5.0 2.5 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ligorna down, Bra across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ligorna at home: 3.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bra away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Ligorna, 1.01 for Bra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BRA 2–0 LIG · LIG 0–1 BRA · LIG 0–0 BRA · BRA 1–2 LIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

LIGORNA

LLWWWW1–3 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

BRA

LLDLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1