Lascaris v Fezzanese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LascarisDrawFezzanese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lascaris 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lascaris are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lascaris 48%, draw 28%, Fezzanese 24%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Lascaris v FezzaneseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lascaris win48%

Draw28%

Fezzanese win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lascaris

Fezzanese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lascaris winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market48%

Us48%

~~Market~~48%

We make Lascaris a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lascaris v Fezzanese~~1.43 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~8 v 16

~~The market · Lascaris win~~48% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lascaris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lascaris win	48%	48%	0
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Fezzanese win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Lascaris or draw	76%	76%	0
Lascaris clean sheet	40%	–	–
Fezzanese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.7 8.5 4.2 1 13.1 12.6 5.6 2 9.4 8.4 3.9 3 4.6 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lascaris down, Fezzanese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,891 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Lascaris at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Fezzanese away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Lascaris, 0.93 for Fezzanese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

LASCARIS

WDLDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

FEZZANESE

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1