Imperia v Celle Varazze prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ImperiaDrawCelle Varazze

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Imperia 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Imperia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Imperia 47%, draw 26%, Celle Varazze 27%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Imperia v Celle VarazzeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Imperia win47%

Draw26%

Celle Varazze win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Imperia

Celle Varazze

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Imperia	8	0	11
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · imperia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market59%

Us47%

~~Market~~59%

We make Imperia a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Imperia v Celle Varazze~~1.54 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 1~~10 v 18

~~The market · Imperia win~~59% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Imperia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imperia win	47%	59%	−12
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Celle Varazze win	27%	16%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	52%	43%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	69%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Imperia or draw	73%	84%	−11
Imperia clean sheet	34%	–	–
Celle Varazze clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.1 7.6 4.4 1 10.6 12.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 8.9 4.8 3 4.4 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imperia down, Celle Varazze across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,890 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Imperia at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Celle Varazze away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Imperia, 1.10 for Celle Varazze. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IMP 0–1 CEL · CEL 2–2 IMP · IMP 1–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

IMPERIA

LWLDWL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–4

CELLE VARAZZE

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1