Imperia v Biellese prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Imperia 2–1 Biellese BIELLESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Biellese win~~47%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.839

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.667

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Biellese win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Imperia v Biellese
2′Little has changed for our model: Biellese 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 26–26–48
4′Little has changed for our model: Biellese 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 26–27–47
25′⚽ GOAL · 14' Imperia 1–1 Biellese
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Imperia 1–1 Biellese
27′A goal for Biellese on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–32–43
38′A goal for Biellese on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–37–40
45′HALF-TIME Imperia 1–1 Biellese
46′SECOND HALF Imperia 1–1 Biellese
90′⚽ GOAL · 14' Imperia 1–1 Biellese
90′⚽ GOAL · 25' Imperia 1–1 Biellese
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Imperia 2–1 Biellese
FTFULL TIME Imperia 2–1 Biellese
FTImperia 2–1 Biellese · Biellese win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Imperia win26%

Draw27%

Biellese win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Imperia

Biellese

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
11	Imperia	6	+1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · biellese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

47% The market37%

Us47%

~~Market~~37%

We make Biellese a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · biellese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imperia win	26%	33%	−7
Draw	27%	29%	−3
Biellese win	47%	37%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Imperia or draw	53%	63%	−10
Imperia clean sheet	23%	–	–
Biellese clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 11.3 8.7 4.5 1 7.9 12.3 8.8 4.5 2 4.4 6.2 4.6 2.3 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imperia down, Biellese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Imperia at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Biellese away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Imperia, 1.51 for Biellese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~IMP 0–1 BIE · BIE 1–0 IMP

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

IMPERIA

WDLWLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

BIELLESE

DWWDWW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0