Gozzano v Ligorna prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Gozzano 0–4 Ligorna LIGORNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ligorna win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ligorna win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ligorna was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
1′KICK-OFF Gozzano v Ligorna
6′Much as we predicted: Ligorna was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Gozzano 0–0 Ligorna
22′21′ and it is 0–1: Ligorna have scored. 0–1 · 9–18–73
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Gozzano 0–1 Ligorna
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
39′We published Ligorna at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
41′We published Ligorna at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–18–75
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gozzano 0–2 Ligorna
45′HALF-TIME Gozzano 0–2 Ligorna
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ligorna win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Gozzano 0–2 Ligorna
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Gozzano 0–3 Ligorna
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Gozzano 0–4 Ligorna
FTFULL TIME Gozzano 0–4 Ligorna
FTGozzano 0–4 Ligorna · Ligorna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gozzano win28%

Draw26%

Ligorna win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gozzano

Ligorna

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ligorna winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ligorna a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ligorna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gozzano win	28%	27%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Ligorna win	46%	46%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Gozzano or draw	54%	54%	0
Gozzano clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ligorna clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.0 10.3 8.0 4.2 1 7.7 12.1 8.7 4.5 2 4.6 6.6 4.9 2.5 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gozzano down, Ligorna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gozzano at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ligorna away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Gozzano, 1.54 for Ligorna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIG 0–1 GOZ · GOZ 3–0 LIG · GOZ 2–0 LIG · LIG 1–4 GOZ

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

GOZZANO

DLDWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4

LIGORNA

DLLWWW2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0