Gozzano v Chisola prediction · Serie D - Girone A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GozzanoDrawChisola

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Chisola 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chisola are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gozzano 31%, draw 28%, Chisola 42%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Gozzano v ChisolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gozzano win31%

Draw28%

Chisola win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gozzano

Chisola

14Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chisola winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Chisola a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gozzano v Chisola~~1.12 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gozzano win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Chisola win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Gozzano or draw	58%	–	–
Gozzano clean sheet	27%	–	–
Chisola clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.4 10.8 7.6 3.6 1 9.0 12.8 8.2 3.8 2 5.4 6.9 4.6 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gozzano down, Chisola across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,891 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gozzano at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chisola away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Gozzano, 1.37 for Chisola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GOZ 3–2 CHI · CHI 1–1 GOZ · GOZ 1–0 CHI · CHI 0–2 GOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

GOZZANO

LDWWLL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

CHISOLA

DLDWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1