Fezzanese v Millesimo prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Fezzanese 0–4 Millesimo MILLESIMO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Millesimo win~~36%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Millesimo win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Millesimo 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′Millesimo score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
1′KICK-OFF Fezzanese v Millesimo
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Fezzanese 0–1 Millesimo
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Millesimo win: 36% at kick-off, 64% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Millesimo win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Fezzanese win 16%)
2′We said Millesimo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
4′We said Millesimo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Millesimo win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
16′Millesimo find the net on 15′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
16′We said Millesimo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Fezzanese 0–2 Millesimo
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Millesimo win: 36% at kick-off, 87% now
23′A goal for Millesimo on 22′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
23′We said Millesimo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–3 · 1–3–97
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Fezzanese 0–3 Millesimo
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Millesimo win: 36% at kick-off, 97% now
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 1–2–97
45′HALF-TIME Fezzanese 0–3 Millesimo
46′SECOND HALF Fezzanese 0–3 Millesimo
48′Millesimo score on 48′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Fezzanese 0–4 Millesimo
49′We said Millesimo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
49′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
71′PENALTY MISSED · 70' Fezzanese
FTFULL TIME Fezzanese 0–4 Millesimo
FTFezzanese 0–4 Millesimo · Millesimo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Millesimo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fezzanese 36%, draw 28%, Millesimo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Fezzanese v MillesimoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fezzanese win36%

Draw28%

Millesimo win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fezzanese

Millesimo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · millesimo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make Millesimo a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fezzanese v Millesimo~~1.22 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~14 v 4

~~The market · Millesimo win~~38% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Millesimo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fezzanese win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Millesimo win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Fezzanese or draw	64%	62%	+2
Fezzanese clean sheet	30%	–	–
Millesimo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.8 10.2 6.5 2.7 1 10.1 12.9 7.6 3.2 2 6.4 7.5 4.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fezzanese down, Millesimo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Fezzanese at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Millesimo away: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Fezzanese, 1.23 for Millesimo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

FEZZANESE

WWLLLL2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

MILLESIMO

WWLWLW2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1