Derthona v Asti prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Derthona 1–1 Asti DERTHONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Derthona win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derthona win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Derthona 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Derthona v Asti
18′Asti find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–64
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Derthona 0–1 Asti
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Asti win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Derthona win 14%)
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Asti
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Asti win 28%)
37′Derthona find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
37′We said Derthona at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Derthona 1–0 Asti
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Derthona win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
45′HALF-TIME Derthona 1–0 Asti
46′We said Derthona at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′SECOND HALF Derthona 1–0 Asti
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
61′We said Derthona at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′We said Derthona at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′A goal for Asti on 76′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–75–12
77′We said Derthona at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–12
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Derthona 1–1 Asti
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Derthona win 14%)
82′We said Derthona at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Derthona win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
89′We said Derthona at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Derthona 1–1 Asti
FTDerthona 1–1 Asti · Derthona win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derthona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Derthona 39%, draw 30%, Asti 32%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Derthona v AstiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Derthona win39%

Draw30%

Asti win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derthona

Asti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
10	Asti	7	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · derthona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Derthona a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derthona v Asti~~1.18 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~8 v 10

~~The market · Derthona win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derthona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derthona win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Asti win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Derthona or draw	68%	70%	−2
Derthona clean sheet	36%	–	–
Asti clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.9 10.8 5.9 2.1 1 12.3 13.4 6.7 2.4 2 7.6 7.6 3.9 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derthona down, Asti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derthona at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Asti away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Derthona, 1.04 for Asti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 1–1 AST · AST 2–3 DER · DER 0–1 AST · AST 1–0 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

DERTHONA

DWWDLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–4

ASTI

WWDLWL2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1