Chisola v Derthona prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Chisola 4–2 Derthona CHISOLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chisola win~~50%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chisola win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Chisola v Derthona
2′Little has changed for our model: Chisola 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
4′Little has changed for our model: Chisola 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–23
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Chisola 1–0 Derthona
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Chisola 2–0 Derthona
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chisola 3–0 Derthona
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Chisola 3–1 Derthona
41′A goal for Derthona on 39′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Chisola win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Chisola win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Chisola win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Chisola win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
43′A goal for Derthona on 39′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Chisola 4–1 Derthona
45′HALF-TIME Chisola 4–1 Derthona
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Chisola win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF Chisola 4–1 Derthona
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Chisola 4–2 Derthona
FTFULL TIME Chisola 4–2 Derthona
FTChisola 4–2 Derthona · Chisola win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chisola win50%

Draw27%

Derthona win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chisola

Derthona

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
9	Chisola	6	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chisola winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Chisola a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chisola win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chisola win	50%	44%	+7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Derthona win	23%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Chisola or draw	77%	72%	+5
Chisola clean sheet	41%	–	–
Derthona clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.7 7.7 3.8 1 12.9 12.3 5.4 2 9.9 8.8 4.1 3 5.1 4.5 2.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chisola down, Derthona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chisola at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Derthona away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Chisola, 0.92 for Derthona. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DER 0–1 CHI · CHI 3–1 DER · CHI 1–1 DER · DER 2–1 CHI

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

CHISOLA

LWDLDW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–0

DERTHONA

WDWWDL1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0