Celle Varazze v Gozzano prediction · Serie D

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Gozzano just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Celle Varazze 35%, draw 29%, Gozzano 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Celle Varazze v GozzanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Celle Varazze win35%

Draw29%

Gozzano win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celle Varazze

Gozzano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gozzano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Gozzano a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celle Varazze v Gozzano~~1.17 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~18 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celle Varazze win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Gozzano win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Celle Varazze or draw	64%	–	–
Celle Varazze clean sheet	32%	–	–
Gozzano clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.6 10.8 6.7 2.7 1 10.7 13.3 7.5 3.0 2 6.5 7.4 4.3 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celle Varazze down, Gozzano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celle Varazze at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gozzano away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Celle Varazze, 1.18 for Gozzano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CEL 3–1 GOZ · GOZ 1–2 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

CELLE VARAZZE

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

GOZZANO

LDWWLL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1