Bra v Saluzzo prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Bra 1–1 Saluzzo BRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bra win~~45%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.784

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.741

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bra win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Bra v Saluzzo
2′Much as we predicted: Bra was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
4′Much as we predicted: Bra was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
45′HALF-TIME Bra 0–0 Saluzzo
46′SECOND HALF Bra 0–0 Saluzzo
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' Bra 1–1 Saluzzo
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Bra 1–1 Saluzzo
FTFULL TIME Bra 1–1 Saluzzo
FTBra 1–1 Saluzzo · Bra win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bra win45%

Draw28%

Saluzzo win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Attilio Bravi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bra

Saluzzo

4Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
16	Bra	6	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bra winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market33%

Us45%

~~Market~~33%

We make Bra a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bra win	45%	33%	+12
Draw	28%	30%	−1
Saluzzo win	27%	37%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Bra or draw	73%	63%	+10
Bra clean sheet	39%	–	–
Saluzzo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 11.0 9.2 4.7 1 12.8 12.8 6.0 2.0 2 8.8 8.2 4.0 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bra down, Saluzzo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bra at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Saluzzo away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Bra, 0.97 for Saluzzo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BRA 2–0 SAL · SAL 0–2 BRA · BRA 1–0 SAL · SAL 1–1 BRA

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

BRA

DLLDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

SALUZZO

DWWDDL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0