Bra v Derthona prediction · Serie D - Girone A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BraDrawDerthona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bra 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bra 53%, draw 27%, Derthona 20%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Bra v DerthonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bra win53%

Draw27%

Derthona win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

VenueStadio Attilio Bravi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bra

Derthona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
13	Bra	8	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market39%

Us53%

~~Market~~39%

We make Bra a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bra v Derthona~~1.53 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~13 v 7

~~The market · Bra win~~39% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bra win	53%	39%	+14
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Derthona win	20%	33%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	54%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Bra or draw	80%	67%	+13
Bra clean sheet	45%	–	–
Derthona clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.8 7.5 3.3 1 14.2 12.0 4.7 2 11.0 8.6 3.5 3 5.7 4.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bra down, Derthona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,891 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bra at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Derthona away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Bra, 0.81 for Derthona. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BRA 2–0 DER · DER 0–4 BRA · BRA 1–2 DER · DER 0–1 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

BRA

LDLWDW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

DERTHONA

WWDLLD3–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1