Borgosesia v Imperia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Borgosesia 4–2 Imperia IMPERIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Imperia win~~42%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Imperia win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Imperia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
1′KICK-OFF Borgosesia v Imperia
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Imperia win 35%)
45′We said Imperia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 90–8–2
45′HALF-TIME Borgosesia 3–1 Imperia
46′Imperia find the net on 90′. 4–2. 4–2 · 90–8–2
46′SECOND HALF Borgosesia 3–1 Imperia
46′⚽ GOAL · 90+17' Borgosesia 4–2 Imperia
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Borgosesia 4–2 Imperia
47′A goal for Imperia on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 91–7–2
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Borgosesia 3–1 Imperia
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Imperia win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Borgosesia win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 7%)
FTFULL TIME Borgosesia 4–2 Imperia
FTBorgosesia 4–2 Imperia · Imperia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Imperia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borgosesia 30%, draw 28%, Imperia 42%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Borgosesia v ImperiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Borgosesia win30%

Draw28%

Imperia win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borgosesia

Imperia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · imperia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market55%

Us42%

~~Market~~55%

We make Imperia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borgosesia v Imperia~~1.08 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~16 v 6

~~The market · Imperia win~~55% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Imperia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borgosesia win	30%	18%	+12
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Imperia win	42%	55%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Borgosesia or draw	58%	45%	+13
Borgosesia clean sheet	27%	–	–
Imperia clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 10.1 11.5 8.0 3.8 1 9.1 12.6 8.0 3.7 2 5.3 6.6 4.3 3 2.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borgosesia down, Imperia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Borgosesia at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Imperia away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Borgosesia, 1.35 for Imperia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 1–0 IMP · IMP 1–3 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

BORGOSESIA

DDWDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

IMPERIA

DLWLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	7	+6	18
2	Biellese	7	+6	14
3	Ligorna	7	+5	13
4	Millesimo	7	+5	12
5	Chisola	7	+4	11
6	Imperia	7	+2	11
7	Lascaris	7	−2	11
8	Derthona	7	−1	11
9	Saluzzo	7	+3	10
10	Asti	7	0	10
11	Gozzano	7	−3	10
12	Sanremese	7	+2	9
13	Sestri Levante	7	−2	8
14	Fezzanese	7	−2	7
15	Bra	7	−3	6
16	Borgosesia	7	−5	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1