Biellese v Valenzana prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Biellese 4–1 Valenzana BIELLESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Biellese win~~64%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.202

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.301

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Biellese win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Biellese was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
1′KICK-OFF Biellese v Valenzana
10′Biellese find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–5
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Biellese 1–0 Valenzana
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Biellese win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
11′We published Biellese at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–5
12′A goal for Biellese on 12′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
12′We published Biellese at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Biellese 2–0 Valenzana
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Biellese win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
21′Biellese score on 20′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Biellese 3–0 Valenzana
27′Biellese find the net on 26′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
27′We published Biellese at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Biellese 4–0 Valenzana
30′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Biellese 4–0 Valenzana
46′SECOND HALF Biellese 4–0 Valenzana
73′A goal for Valenzana on 73′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
73′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Biellese 4–1 Valenzana
FTFULL TIME Biellese 4–1 Valenzana
FTBiellese 4–1 Valenzana · Biellese win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Biellese are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Biellese 64%, draw 21%, Valenzana 15%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Biellese v ValenzanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Biellese win64%

Draw21%

Valenzana win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Biellese

Valenzana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Biellese	7	+6	14
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · biellese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market55%

Us64%

~~Market~~55%

We make Biellese a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Biellese v Valenzana~~2.03 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~4 v 17

~~The market · Biellese win~~55% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Biellese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Biellese win	64%	55%	+9
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Valenzana win	15%	19%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	30%	+2
Biellese or draw	85%	81%	+4
Biellese clean sheet	43%	–	–
Valenzana clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 6.7 4.7 2.2 1 11.3 10.0 4.1 2 11.2 9.2 3.9 3 7.5 6.2 2.6 4 4.0 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Biellese down, Valenzana across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,882 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Biellese at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Valenzana away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Biellese, 0.85 for Valenzana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–2 BIE · BIE 2–0 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 12 Sept

BIELLESE

WWDWWL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

VALENZANA

LLDLWD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Millesimo	8	+9	15
3	Chisola	8	+7	14
4	Biellese	7	+6	14
5	Ligorna	7	+5	13
6	Sanremese	8	+3	12
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
14	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
15	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
16	Bra	7	−3	6
17	Valenzana	7	−3	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1