Asti v Lascaris prediction · Serie D - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Asti 0–1 Lascaris ASTI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asti win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.741

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asti win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Asti v Lascaris
2′Little has changed for our model: Asti 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
4′Little has changed for our model: Asti 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Asti win 33%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Asti win 33%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Asti win 33%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Asti win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Asti 0–0 Lascaris
46′SECOND HALF Asti 0–0 Lascaris
FTFULL TIME Asti 0–1 Lascaris
FTAsti 0–1 Lascaris · Asti win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Asti win39%

Draw31%

Lascaris win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Asti

Lascaris

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Asti	6	+1	10
8	Lascaris	6	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asti winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Asti a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asti win	39%	43%	−3
Draw	31%	31%	0
Lascaris win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−9
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	62%	68%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Asti or draw	70%	73%	−3
Asti clean sheet	39%	–	–
Lascaris clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 13.4 11.4 5.6 1 13.6 13.5 6.2 2.0 2 7.9 7.3 3.5 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asti down, Lascaris across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Asti at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lascaris away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Asti, 0.95 for Lascaris. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

ASTI

LWWDLW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

LASCARIS

DWWDLD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0