Asti v Borgosesia prediction · Serie D - Girone A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AstiDrawBorgosesia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Asti 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asti are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asti 47%, draw 28%, Borgosesia 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Asti v BorgosesiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Asti win47%

Draw28%

Borgosesia win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asti

Borgosesia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Asti	8	0	11
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asti winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make Asti a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asti v Borgosesia~~1.44 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~9 v 14

~~The market · Asti win~~43% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Asti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asti win	47%	43%	+4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Borgosesia win	25%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Asti or draw	75%	71%	+4
Asti clean sheet	39%	–	–
Borgosesia clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 10.3 8.5 4.3 1 12.6 12.5 5.8 2 9.1 8.4 4.0 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asti down, Borgosesia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,890 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asti at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Borgosesia away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Asti, 0.96 for Borgosesia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BOR 0–1 AST · AST 4–0 BOR · AST 1–1 BOR · BOR 1–1 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

ASTI

WDLWLD2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

BORGOSESIA

DWDLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1