Alessandria v Fezzanese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Alessandria 2–0 Fezzanese ALESSANDRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alessandria win~~46%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alessandria win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Alessandria v Fezzanese
3′Little has changed for our model: Alessandria 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–29
4′Little has changed for our model: Alessandria 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Alessandria 1–0 Fezzanese
24′17′ and it is 1–0: Alessandria have scored. 1–0 · 73–18–9
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
25′17′ and it is 1–0: Alessandria have scored. 1–0 · 73–18–9
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
42′We said Alessandria at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
44′We said Alessandria at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Alessandria 1–0 Fezzanese
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Alessandria win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Alessandria 1–0 Fezzanese
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Alessandria 2–0 Fezzanese
FTFULL TIME Alessandria 2–0 Fezzanese
FTAlessandria 2–0 Fezzanese · Alessandria win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Alessandria win46%

Draw26%

Fezzanese win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alessandria

Fezzanese

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alessandria winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

46% The market65%

Us46%

~~Market~~65%

We make Alessandria a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alessandria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alessandria win	46%	65%	−19
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Fezzanese win	29%	12%	+16
Over 2.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	42%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+2
Alessandria or draw	71%	88%	−16
Alessandria clean sheet	32%	–	–
Fezzanese clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 7.5 4.6 1 9.9 11.9 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 8.7 5.0 2.0 3 4.2 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alessandria down, Fezzanese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Alessandria at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Fezzanese away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Alessandria, 1.17 for Fezzanese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A

ALESSANDRIA

WWLWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

FEZZANESE

DWWLLL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	6	+4	15
2	Biellese	6	+7	14
3	Derthona	6	+1	11
4	Ligorna	6	+1	10
5	Asti	6	+1	10
6	Saluzzo	6	+3	9
7	Millesimo	6	+2	9
8	Lascaris	6	0	9
9	Chisola	6	+2	8
10	Sanremese	6	+2	8
11	Imperia	6	+1	8
12	Gozzano	6	−2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	−2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	−2	6
16	Bra	6	−3	5
17	Valenzana	6	−3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	−12	0