Alessandria v Biellese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlessandriaDrawBiellese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Biellese 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Biellese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alessandria 31%, draw 26%, Biellese 43%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Alessandria v BielleseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alessandria win31%

Draw26%

Biellese win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 9

VenueStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alessandria

Biellese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · biellese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make Biellese a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alessandria v Biellese~~1.26 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~1 v 2

~~The market · Biellese win~~32% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Biellese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alessandria win	31%	39%	−8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Biellese win	43%	32%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	53%	46%	+7
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	31%	26%	+5
Alessandria or draw	57%	68%	−11
Alessandria clean sheet	23%	–	–
Biellese clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.9 8.9 7.1 3.7 1 7.5 11.9 8.6 4.4 2 5.0 7.3 5.4 2.8 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alessandria down, Biellese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,890 Serie D - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alessandria at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Biellese away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Alessandria, 1.54 for Biellese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BIE 3–2 ALE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone A this season · since 16 Sept

ALESSANDRIA

LWWWWW1–4 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

BIELLESE

WDWWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alessandria	8	+7	21
2	Biellese	8	+9	17
3	Millesimo	9	+9	16
4	Chisola	8	+7	14
5	Ligorna	8	+4	13
6	Sanremese	9	+3	13
7	Derthona	8	−1	12
8	Lascaris	8	−3	11
9	Asti	8	0	11
10	Imperia	8	0	11
11	Saluzzo	8	0	10
12	Gozzano	7	−3	10
13	Bra	8	−2	9
14	Borgosesia	8	−3	9
15	Sestri Levante	8	−3	8
16	Fezzanese	8	−6	7
17	Valenzana	8	−6	5
18	Celle Varazze	7	−12	1