Team Altamura v Catania prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Team Altamura 0–3 Catania CATANIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Catania win~~44%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Catania win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Catania 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 25–30–45
6′Little has changed for our model: Catania 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 25–31–44
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Team Altamura
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Catania
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' A. Allegretto · Catania
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Team Altamura 0–1 Catania
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Team Altamura 0–1 Catania · M. Coda
33′29′ and it is 0–1: M. Coda on the scoresheet for Catania. 0–1 · 5–17–77
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
39′29′ and it is 0–1: M. Coda on the scoresheet for Catania. 0–1 · 5–17–78
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Team Altamura 0–1 Catania
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Catania win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Team Altamura 0–1 Catania
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Team Altamura 0–2 Catania · M. Coda
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Team Altamura 0–2 Catania · R. Insigne
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Team Altamura · On: M. Calusic · Off: M. Nazzaro
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Team Altamura · On: M. Bocic · Off: L. Peschetola
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Team Altamura · On: G. Malcore · Off: G. Simone
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Catania · On: M. Liguori · Off: R. Insigne
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Catania · On: S. Caturano · Off: M. Coda
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Catania · On: E. Torrasi · Off: A. Quaini
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Catania · On: G. Lunetta · Off: E. Cicerelli
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Team Altamura 0–3 Catania · R. Insigne
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Team Altamura 0–3 Catania
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Team Altamura · On: R. Tudor · Off: R. Pirrello
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Catania · On: N. Catania · Off: G. Bruzzaniti
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Catania · On: N. Catania · Off: G. Bruzzaniti
FTFULL TIME Team Altamura 0–3 Catania
FTTeam Altamura 0–3 Catania · Catania win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Team Altamura win25%

Draw31%

Catania win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

RefereeG. Bozzetto

Line-ups

Team Altamura

Catania

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Team Altamura

Catania

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Catania	8	+4	13
16	Team Altamura	8	−6	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Team Altamura

Formation not confirmed

32 F. Perucchini

5 M. Zazza

31 R. Pirrello

37 M. Falasca

21 T. Mogentale

4 N. Dipinto

20 E. Gudelevicius

30 M. Nazzaro

70 L. Peschetola

7 M. Rosafio

11 G. Simone

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · F. Di Bartolo

99 · S. De Gennaro

2 · L. Gagliardi

28 · R. Tudor

3 · A. Ovalle Santos

77 · M. Calusic

14 · M. Bocic

27 · R. Dimola

9 · G. Malcore

Catania

Formation not confirmed

57 A. Dini

35 E. Cabianca

15 M. Di Gennaro

6 A. Allegretto

7 G. Bruzzaniti

16 A. Quaini

4 A. Vallocchia

32 E. Masciangelo

94 R. Insigne

10 E. Cicerelli

9 M. Coda

Coach · Emilio Longo

Substitutes

1 · F. Rinaldi

20 · D. Donnarumma

5 · M. Perrotta

28 · E. Torrasi

18 · N. Cavuoti

23 · G. Lunetta

76 · G. Cariello

21 · M. Liguori

25 · C. Torre

11 · S. Caturano

70 · N. Catania

Our number · catania winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

44% The market53%

Us44%

~~Market~~53%

We make Catania a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · catania win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. The market has gone from 50% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Team Altamura win	25%	19%	+5
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Catania win	44%	53%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	34%	43%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−8
Team Altamura or draw	56%	47%	+9
Team Altamura clean sheet	30%	–	–
Catania clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%

0123450 13.9 14.9 9.5 4.0 1 9.9 13.4 7.7 3.2 2 4.5 5.3 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Team Altamura down, Catania across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,960 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Team Altamura at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Catania away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Team Altamura, 1.22 for Catania. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TEA 1–2 CAT · CAT 2–0 TEA · TEA 1–1 CAT · CAT 2–0 TEA

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

TEAM ALTAMURA

LLLWLD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

CATANIA

WLWDWW4–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	8	+5	18
4	Casertana	9	+2	15
5	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
6	Catania	8	+4	13
7	Salernitana	8	+2	12
8	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
9	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	7	−1	10
14	Savoia	9	−1	10
15	Casarano	8	−3	10
16	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2