SS Monopoli v Audace Cerignola prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SS MonopoliDrawAudace Cerignola

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · SS Monopoli 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SS Monopoli are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SS Monopoli 40%, draw 30%, Audace Cerignola 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on SS Monopoli v Audace CerignolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SS Monopoli win40%

Draw30%

Audace Cerignola win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Vito Simone Veneziani

RefereeM. Picardi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SS Monopoli

Audace Cerignola

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
9	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ss monopoli winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make SS Monopoli a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SS Monopoli v Audace Cerignola~~1.22 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~9 v 4

~~The market · SS Monopoli win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SS Monopoli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SS Monopoli win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	30%	30%	0
Audace Cerignola win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
SS Monopoli or draw	70%	68%	+2
SS Monopoli clean sheet	37%	–	–
Audace Cerignola clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.0 10.0 5.6 1 12.1 13.8 6.6 2.3 2 7.9 7.8 4.0 3 3.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SS Monopoli down, Audace Cerignola across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,982 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SS Monopoli at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Audace Cerignola away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for SS Monopoli, 1.02 for Audace Cerignola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUD 1–1 SSM · AUD 0–0 SSM · SSM 2–0 AUD · AUD 1–0 SSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

SS MONOPOLI

DDWDLW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–2

AUDACE CERIGNOLA

LDLDWW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	11	+4	20
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Scafatese	10	+3	17
6	Casertana	11	+2	17
7	Catania	10	+6	16
8	Cavese	10	+3	15
9	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	10	+1	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	11	−3	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Savoia	11	−5	11
17	Casarano	10	−6	11
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	11	−14	6
20	Crotone	10	−5	1