Scafatese v Sorrento prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Scafatese 3–2 Sorrento SCAFATESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Scafatese win~~50%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scafatese win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Scafatese was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–24
4′Much as we predicted: Scafatese was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Scafatese 1–0 Sorrento · C. Palmieri
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Scafatese 1–0 Sorrento
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Scafatese 2–0 Sorrento · M. Emmausso
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Scafatese 2–0 Sorrento
22′Scafatese ahead on 12′ through M. Emmausso. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
25′Scafatese ahead on 12′ through M. Emmausso. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Sorrento
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
28′Scafatese ahead on 12′ through M. Emmausso. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Scafatese 2–0 Sorrento
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Scafatese 3–0 Sorrento · M. Emmausso
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
46′C. Palmieri scores for Scafatese on 32′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sorrento · On: F. Ricci · Off: A. Potenza
46′SECOND HALF Scafatese 3–0 Sorrento
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Sorrento
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sorrento · On: F. Ricci · Off: A. Potenza
50′SECOND HALF Scafatese 3–0 Sorrento
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Scafatese win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Scafatese · On: Lucas Dambros · Off: E. Volpicelli
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sorrento · On: S. Parker · Off: A. Bolzan
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Scafatese · On: A. Esposito · Off: F. Tripi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Scafatese · On: V. Guerra · Off: A. Ferrara
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sorrento · On: M. Falasca · Off: M. Cuccurullo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Scafatese · On: S. Longo · Off: M. Emmausso
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Scafatese · On: P. Ortisi · Off: C. Palmieri
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Scafatese 3–0 Sorrento
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Scafatese 3–1 Sorrento · C. Palmieri
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sorrento · On: G. Castaldi · Off: C. Loreto
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Scafatese 3–2 Sorrento · S. Parker
98′⚽ GOAL · 99' Scafatese 3–2 Sorrento
FTFULL TIME Scafatese 3–2 Sorrento
FTScafatese 3–2 Sorrento · Scafatese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Scafatese win50%

Draw27%

Sorrento win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueStadio Raffaele Guariglia

RefereeA. Di Reda

Line-ups

Scafatese

Sorrento

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Scafatese

Sorrento

14Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sorrento	8	+5	18
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Scafatese

Formation not confirmed

22 F. Forte

35 M. Novella

20 M. Scognamiglio

13 L. Bacchetti

99 A. Ferrara

15 F. Tripi

25 M. Toscano

5 F. Proia

27 C. Palmieri

7 E. Volpicelli

90 M. Emmausso

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · G. Becchi

11 · P. Ortisi

6 · J. Suhs

55 · V. Guerra

32 · C. Terribili

8 · A. Esposito

23 · J. Brunet

98 · E. De Chiara

91 · S. Longo

10 · Lucas Dambros

28 · S. Molinaro

Sorrento

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Harrasser

33 A. Viscardi

6 F. Fusco

27 C. Loreto

32 S. Paglino

8 M. Cuccurullo

28 L. Capezzi

21 A. Potenza

3 L. Crecco

7 E. Starita

19 A. Bolzan

Coach · Vincenzo Maiuri

Substitutes

13 · L. Del Sorbo

48 · J. Boccarusso

24 · N. Evangelisti

2 · M. Puzone

26 · V. Di Somma

5 · R. Cargnelutti

31 · G. Castaldi

11 · M. Falasca

4 · J. Bacci

10 · F. Ricci

9 · S. Parker

Our number · scafatese winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

50% The market39%

Us50%

~~Market~~39%

We make Scafatese a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · scafatese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Scafatese win	50%	39%	+11
Draw	27%	30%	−4
Sorrento win	23%	31%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	42%	+4
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	67%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+2
Scafatese or draw	77%	69%	+7
Scafatese clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sorrento clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.9 7.1 3.9 1 11.6 12.5 5.8 2 9.5 9.1 4.5 3 5.0 4.8 2.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Scafatese down, Sorrento across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,960 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Scafatese at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Sorrento away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Scafatese, 0.98 for Sorrento. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

SCAFATESE

LDWDDW0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

SORRENTO

WWWLLW2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	8	+5	18
4	Casertana	9	+2	15
5	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
6	Catania	8	+4	13
7	Salernitana	8	+2	12
8	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
9	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	7	−1	10
14	Savoia	9	−1	10
15	Casarano	8	−3	10
16	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2