Scafatese v Barletta prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Scafatese 1–0 Barletta SCAFATESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Scafatese win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.396

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scafatese win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Scafatese was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Scafatese v Barletta
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Barletta
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Scafatese
21′We published Scafatese at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Scafatese 1–0 Barletta
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Scafatese win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
22′A goal for Scafatese on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′SECOND HALF Scafatese 1–0 Barletta
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Scafatese
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Scafatese
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barletta · On: D. Franco · Off: H. Djankpata
49′A red card for Scafatese on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 78–17–5
50′HALF-TIME Scafatese 1–0 Barletta
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Scafatese win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
58′We published Scafatese at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Barletta · On: F. Tito · Off: A. Vona
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barletta · On: M. Della Rocca · Off: G. Coccia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barletta · On: E. Ongaro · Off: I. Voca
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Scafatese · On: M. Novella · Off: C. Palmieri
72′We published Scafatese at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barletta · On: D. Distratto · Off: F. Laringe
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Scafatese · On: S. Longo · Off: M. Emmausso
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Scafatese · On: J. Suhs · Off: A. Ferrara
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Scafatese
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Scafatese win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Scafatese · On: A. Esposito · Off: E. Volpicelli
80′We published Scafatese at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Barletta
87′We published Scafatese at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Scafatese win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Scafatese at 49% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Scafatese
FTFULL TIME Scafatese 1–0 Barletta
FTScafatese 1–0 Barletta · Scafatese win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Scafatese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Scafatese 49%, draw 26%, Barletta 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Scafatese v BarlettaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Scafatese win49%

Draw26%

Barletta win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Raffaele Guariglia

RefereeC. Ursini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Scafatese

Barletta

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
14	Barletta	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scafatese winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Scafatese a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Scafatese v Barletta~~1.66 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Scafatese win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Scafatese win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Barletta win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Scafatese or draw	74%	–	–
Scafatese clean sheet	33%	–	–
Barletta clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 6.3 4.0 1 9.4 12.1 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.6 5.2 2.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Scafatese down, Barletta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,979 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Scafatese at home: 1.25 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Barletta away: 1.20 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Scafatese, 1.14 for Barletta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SCA 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

SCAFATESE

WDDWWD2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2

BARLETTA

DDLLDW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Casertana	11	+2	17
6	Catania	10	+6	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	10	−2	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Casarano	10	−6	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1