Savoia v Cosenza prediction · Serie C - Girone C

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Savoia 1–1 Cosenza SAVOIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Savoia win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Savoia win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Savoia 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Savoia v Cosenza
11′We said Savoia at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Savoia 1–0 Cosenza
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
12′Savoia find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–11
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' Savoia
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Savoia
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Cosenza
45′SECOND HALF Savoia 0–0 Cosenza
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Savoia win 37%)
47′HALF-TIME Savoia 0–0 Cosenza
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cosenza · On: A. Energe · Off: F. Palazzino
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
54′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–45–23
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Cosenza · On: T. Petrovic · Off: S. Achour
60′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–21
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Savoia · On: A. Nepi · Off: P. Yeboah
66′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–74
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Savoia 0–1 Cosenza
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Cosenza win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 55%)
67′A goal for Cosenza on 66′. 1–1 · 25–56–19
67′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 25–56–19
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Savoia 1–1 Cosenza
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 25% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Cosenza win 74%)
68′A goal for Savoia on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–57–18
68′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–18
70′A. Nepi scores for Savoia on 67′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–60–17
75′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cosenza · On: D. Quieto · Off: A. Ndow
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Savoia · On: D. Portanova · Off: F. D'Amore
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Savoia · On: P. Riccardi · Off: M. Polizzi
80′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' N. Contiliano · Cosenza
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cosenza · On: A. Cogoni · Off: B. Cimino
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cosenza · On: A. D'Alena · Off: R. Palmieri
91′We said Savoia at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Savoia win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
96′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on Savoia misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Savoia 1–1 Cosenza
FTSavoia 1–1 Cosenza · Savoia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Savoia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Savoia 44%, draw 27%, Cosenza 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Savoia v CosenzaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Savoia win44%

Draw27%

Cosenza win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Giraud

RefereeD. Acquafredda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Savoia

Cosenza

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · savoia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Savoia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Savoia v Cosenza~~1.53 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~17 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Savoia win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Savoia win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Cosenza win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Savoia or draw	71%	–	–
Savoia clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cosenza clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 7.1 4.7 1 9.3 12.6 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 8.9 5.3 2.1 3 4.0 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Savoia down, Cosenza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,979 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Savoia at home: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Cosenza away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Savoia, 1.19 for Cosenza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

SAVOIA

DDLDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–4

COSENZA

LDLLWL2–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Casertana	11	+2	17
6	Catania	10	+6	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	10	−2	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Casarano	10	−6	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1