Salernitana v Scafatese

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Salernitana win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Salernitana 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Salernitana v Scafatese
4. 12′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–24–55
5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Salernitana 0–1 Scafatese
6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
7. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Scafatese win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Salernitana win 22%)
8. 14′Scafatese score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
9. 20′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
10. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 17–25–59
12. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Salernitana
13. 38′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
14. 45′SECOND HALF Salernitana 0–1 Scafatese
15. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Salernitana
16. 49′HALF-TIME Salernitana 0–1 Scafatese
17. 53′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
18. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Salernitana 1–1 Scafatese
19. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
20. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Scafatese win 21%)
21. 54′Salernitana find the net on 54′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–45–21
22. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Scafatese
23. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Scafatese · On: V. Guerra · Off: M. Novella
24. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Scafatese · On: Lucas Dambros · Off: C. Palmieri
25. 62′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
26. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Salernitana
27. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
28. 69′We said Salernitana at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
29. 69′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
30. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Salernitana 2–1 Scafatese
31. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 84% now
32. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Salernitana win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
33. 71′A goal for Salernitana on 70′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
34. 71′We said Salernitana at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
35. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
36. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Scafatese · On: A. Esposito · Off: F. Proia
37. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Salernitana · On: R. Zoia · Off: A. Anastasio
38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Salernitana · On: K. de Boer · Off: M. Tascone
39. 79′We said Salernitana at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
40. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Scafatese · On: P. Ortisi · Off: A. Ferrara
41. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Scafatese · On: S. Longo · Off: Lucas Dambros Corrected
42. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Salernitana · On: M. Bevilacqua · Off: F. Lescano
43. 85′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–86–6
44. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Salernitana 2–2 Scafatese
45. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
46. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Salernitana win 8%)
47. 86′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 8–87–5
48. 86′Scafatese score on 86′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 8–87–5
49. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Salernitana win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
50. 91′We said Salernitana at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
51. 96′2–2 at the end. Our 47% on Salernitana misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
52. FTFULL TIME Salernitana 2–2 Scafatese
53. FTSalernitana 2–2 Scafatese · Salernitana win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.