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Potenza v Catania

Potenza
2–1Full time
Catania

Serie C - Girone C · SAT 17 OCT · Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11
Potenza 2–1 Catania POTENZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Potenza win38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Potenza win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Potenza was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Potenza v Catania
  4. 3′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–17
  5. 3′A goal for Potenza on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–17
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Potenza 1–0 Catania
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
  8. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Catania
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
  10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  11. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Potenza 1–1 Catania
  12. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
  13. 37′Catania score on 36′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–34–32
  14. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Catania
  15. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  16. 44′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Potenza 1–0 Catania
  18. 47′HALF-TIME Potenza 1–0 Catania
  19. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Potenza
  20. 52′🟨 YELLOW Catania
  21. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 38' E. Longo · Catania
  22. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Catania · On: G. Lunetta · Off: E. Masciangelo
  23. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Catania · On: E. Torrasi · Off: A. Quaini
  24. 61′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  25. 65′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  26. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Potenza 2–0 Catania
  27. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
  28. 67′Potenza score on 66′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
  29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Catania · On: S. Caturano · Off: M. Coda
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Catania · On: N. Cavuoti · Off: E. Cicerelli
  31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Catania · On: M. Liguori · Off: G. Bruzzaniti
  32. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Potenza · On: M. Manfredonia · Off: A. Bando
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Potenza · On: J. Murano · Off: G. Selleri
  35. 84′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 88′We published Potenza at 38%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Potenza · On: L. Mazzeo · Off: G. D'Auria
  38. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Potenza 2–1 Catania
  39. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
  40. 89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  41. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Potenza · On: P. Matheu · Off: L. Petrungaro
  42. 90′Catania pull one back on 89′ through N. Cavuoti. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  43. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Catania
  44. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Catania
  45. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Potenza win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
  46. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Potenza 2–1 Catania
  47. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Potenza · On: A. Franzolini · Off: M. Castorani
  48. 97′Catania pull one back on 90′ through A. Allegretto. 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  49. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Potenza
  50. 100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' Catania
  51. 104′2–1 after extra time. Our 38% on Potenza is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 104′🟨 YELLOW · 90+15' Catania
  53. 104′🟨 YELLOW · 90+15' Potenza
  54. FTFULL TIME Potenza 2–1 Catania
  55. FTPotenza 2–1 Catania · Potenza win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Potenza just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Potenza 38%, draw 26%, Catania 36%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Potenza v CataniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Potenza win38%
Draw26%
Catania win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 10

VenueStadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani

RefereeF. Zago

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Potenza

Catania

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Potenza9+1222
4Catania9+716

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · potenza winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Potenza a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Potenza v Catania1.49 – 1.43
Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 22 v 161 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 15:59
Our probability · Potenza win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Potenza win38%––
Draw26%––
Catania win36%––
Over 2.5 goals55%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Potenza or draw64%––
Potenza clean sheet25%––
Catania clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.5 7.1 5.5 2.7 1 7.5 12.0 7.9 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.8 2.8 3 3.0 4.1 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Potenza down, Catania across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsCAT 1–1 POT · POT 1–1 CAT · CAT 1–0 POT · POT 1–2 CAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept

POTENZA

LDWWWW2–4 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 3–1

CATANIA

LWDWWW1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Potenza9+1222
2Bari9+719
3Sorrento9+418
4Catania9+716
5Casertana9+215
6Audace Cerignola9+514
7Inter U238+313
8Scafatese8+213
9Salernitana9+213
10AZ Picerno9012
11Cavese9012
12SS Monopoli9012
13Foggia9−111
14Casarano9−311
15Savoia9−110
16Barletta9−38
17Team Altamura9−98
18Giugliano9−107
19Cosenza9−125
20Crotone9−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.