Inter U23 v SS Monopoli

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Inter U23 win at 44%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Inter U23 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Inter U23 v SS Monopoli
4. 7′Inter U23 find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
5. 7′We said Inter U23 at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Inter U23 1–0 SS Monopoli
7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Inter U23 win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
8. 12′A goal for SS Monopoli on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–32–26
9. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Inter U23 1–1 SS Monopoli
10. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Inter U23 win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
11. 25′SS Monopoli score on 25′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 15–24–60
12. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Inter U23 1–2 SS Monopoli
13. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Inter U23 win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
14. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' SS Monopoli win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Inter U23 win 15%)
15. 26′We said Inter U23 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–2 · 15–24–61
16. 28′We said Inter U23 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–24–61
17. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Inter U23 win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
18. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 14–25–62
19. 45′HALF-TIME Inter U23 1–2 SS Monopoli
20. 46′SECOND HALF Inter U23 1–2 SS Monopoli
21. 47′We said Inter U23 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
22. 47′SS Monopoli find the net on 47′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
23. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Inter U23 1–3 SS Monopoli
24. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Inter U23 win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
25. 48′We said Inter U23 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
26. 48′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–7–91
27. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' SS Monopoli
28. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SS Monopoli · On: M. Fall · Off: A. Cortinovis
29. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SS Monopoli · On: S. Paukstys · Off: C. Battocchio Corrected
30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Inter U23 · On: M. Lavelli · Off: M. Mancuso
31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Inter U23 · On: D. Sorino · Off: T. Avitabile
32. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Inter U23 · On: F. Cerpelletti · Off: L. Bovo
33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SS Monopoli · On: A. Angileri · Off: S. Piccinini
34. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SS Monopoli · On: F. Gioielli · Off: L. Vido
35. 78′SS Monopoli ahead on 47′ through L. Vido. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
36. 78′We said Inter U23 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
37. 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Inter U23 · On: G. Garonetti · Off: G. Prestia
39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SS Monopoli · On: M. Sardo · Off: E. Scipioni
40. 85′A goal for SS Monopoli on 85′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
41. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Inter U23 1–4 SS Monopoli
42. 86′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
43. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Inter U23 · On: C. Carrara · Off: T. Fumagalli
44. 89′Inter U23 score on 89′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
45. 89′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
46. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Inter U23 2–4 SS Monopoli
47. FTFULL TIME Inter U23 2–4 SS Monopoli
48. FTInter U23 2–4 SS Monopoli · Inter U23 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.