Giugliano v Inter U23 prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Giugliano 0–4 Inter U23 GIUGLIANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Giugliano win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Giugliano win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Giugliano was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Giugliano v Inter U23
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Inter U23
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Giugliano
38′🟨 YELLOW · 12' T. Avitabile · Inter U23
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Giugliano
45′HALF-TIME Giugliano 0–0 Inter U23
46′SECOND HALF Giugliano 0–0 Inter U23
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Inter U23 · On: J. Zuberek · Off: T. Fumagalli
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Giugliano
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Giugliano · On: G. Esposito · Off: R. De Rosa
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Giugliano · On: U. Galletta · Off: L. Forciniti
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Inter U23 · On: R. Agbonifo · Off: M. Lavelli
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Inter U23 · On: F. Cerpelletti · Off: L. Bovo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Giugliano 0–1 Inter U23
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Giugliano 0–1 Inter U23
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Inter U23
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Giugliano 0–2 Inter U23
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Giugliano · On: C. Panico · Off: S. La Vardera
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Giugliano 0–3 Inter U23
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Giugliano 0–4 Inter U23
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Giugliano 0–4 Inter U23 · J. Zuberek
FTFULL TIME Giugliano 0–4 Inter U23
FTGiugliano 0–4 Inter U23 · Giugliano win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

Giugliano win41%

Draw26%

Inter U23 win34%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

VenueSC Alberto De Cristofaro

RefereeAndrea Migliorini

Line-ups

Giugliano

Inter U23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Giugliano

Inter U23

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Inter U23	7	−1	10
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Giugliano

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bolletta

26 A. Minelli

24 M. Caldore

33 S. La Vardera

16 R. Improta

21 L. Forciniti

64 I. Varone

4 R. Zammarini

8 R. De Rosa

9 C. Ibe

10 I. Balde

Coach · Raffaele Napoli

Substitutes

12 · L. Santarelli

77 · S. Greco

23 · G. Laezza

5 · Pedro Justiniano

3 · C. Panico

36 · M. Rigo

6 · J. Broh

19 · A. Cimmaruta

30 · M. Borgnino

44 · L. Peluso

31 · L. Giordano

78 · P. Silvestri

7 · U. Galletta

17 · G. Esposito

99 · S. Cuomo

Inter U23

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Taho

15 F. Stante

80 G. Garonetti

86 L. Jakirovic

2 T. Avitabile

7 I. Kaczmarski

14 L. Bovo

3 M. Marello

99 T. Fumagalli

29 M. Mancuso

45 M. Lavelli

Coach · Stefano Vecchi

Substitutes

1 · R. Melgrati

95 · P. Raimondi

5 · L. Tosto

19 · G. Prestia

27 · M. Aidoo

24 · G. Re Cecconi

37 · D. Sorino

16 · M. Venturini

10 · R. Agbonifo

4 · F. Cerpelletti

30 · M. Mosconi

11 · J. Zuberek

Our number · giugliano winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Giugliano a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · giugliano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Giugliano win	41%	39%	+2
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Inter U23 win	34%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	48%	+8
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	72%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	28%	+6
Giugliano or draw	66%	68%	−1
Giugliano clean sheet	25%	–	–
Inter U23 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 6.6 5.1 2.4 1 7.5 11.8 7.7 3.6 2 6.3 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 3.3 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Giugliano down, Inter U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,966 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Giugliano at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Inter U23 away: 1.50 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Giugliano, 1.40 for Inter U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Serie C - Girone C since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

GIUGLIANO

LLWLWL0–2 · 0–4 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

INTER U23

DLLWWL1–1 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	9	+12	22
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	9	+7	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
7	Scafatese	8	+2	13
8	Salernitana	9	+2	13
9	AZ Picerno	9	0	12
10	Cavese	9	0	12
11	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
12	Foggia	9	−1	11
13	Casarano	9	−3	11
14	Inter U23	7	−1	10
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Barletta	9	−3	8
17	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	9	−12	5