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Giugliano v Foggia

Giugliano

3–1Full time

Foggia

Serie C - Girone C · MON 19 OCT · Stadio Alberto De Cristofaro

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Giugliano 3–1 Foggia GIUGLIANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Giugliano win~~46%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Giugliano win at 46%.
0′KICK-OFF Giugliano v Foggia
1′Much as we predicted: Giugliano was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
15′We said Giugliano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–24–57
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Giugliano 0–1 Foggia
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Giugliano win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Foggia win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Giugliano win 43%)
16′We said Giugliano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
16′Foggia score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–57
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Foggia
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Giugliano 1–1 Foggia
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Giugliano win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Giugliano win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Foggia win 58%)
25′Giugliano find the net on 25′. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–33–25
29′Giugliano level it on 24′ through I. Balde. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–34–25
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Foggia
41′We published Giugliano at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–18–6
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Giugliano 2–1 Foggia
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Giugliano win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
42′A goal for Giugliano on 42′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–6
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–18–6
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Giugliano
45′SECOND HALF Giugliano 2–1 Foggia
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giugliano · On: I. Varone · Off: L. Forciniti
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Foggia · On: A. Smeraldi · Off: T. Azarovs
48′HALF-TIME Giugliano 2–1 Foggia
57′We published Giugliano at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
58′We published Giugliano at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Giugliano 3–1 Foggia
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Giugliano win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
59′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
59′Giugliano score on 59′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Foggia · On: H. Haoudi · Off: F. Zuccon
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Foggia · On: I. Toure · Off: M. Coulibaly
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Foggia · On: F. Del Sole · Off: M. Ravasio
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Giugliano · On: S. La Vardera · Off: U. Galletta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Foggia · On: Y. Merdji · Off: F. Petito
81′We published Giugliano at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Giugliano · On: L. Peluso · Off: R. De Rosa
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Giugliano · On: C. Ibe · Off: I. Balde
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Giugliano · On: M. Rigo · Off: G. Esposito
FTFULL TIME Giugliano 3–1 Foggia
FTGiugliano 3–1 Foggia · Giugliano win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Giugliano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Giugliano 46%, draw 28%, Foggia 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Giugliano v FoggiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Giugliano win46%

Draw28%

Foggia win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 10

VenueStadio Alberto De Cristofaro

RefereeE. Gianquinto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Giugliano

Foggia

6Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Foggia	9	−1	11
18	Giugliano	9	−10	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · giugliano winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

46% The market28%

Us46%

~~Market~~28%

We make Giugliano a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Giugliano v Foggia~~1.47 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~18 v 13

~~The market · Giugliano win~~28% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Giugliano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Giugliano win	46%	28%	+18
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Foggia win	26%	43%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Giugliano or draw	74%	57%	+17
Giugliano clean sheet	36%	–	–
Foggia clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.3 7.8 4.5 1 11.1 13.0 6.4 2.3 2 8.6 8.8 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Giugliano down, Foggia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,976 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Giugliano at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Foggia away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Giugliano, 1.05 for Foggia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FOG 2–1 GIU · GIU 1–0 FOG · GIU 2–1 FOG · FOG 1–2 GIU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept

GIUGLIANO

LWLWLL0–4 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–4

FOGGIA

LDLWWL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	10	+13	25
2	Bari	10	+7	20
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Catania	10	+6	16
6	Casertana	10	+2	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Foggia	9	−1	11
14	Barletta	10	−2	11
15	Casarano	10	−6	11
16	Team Altamura	10	−7	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	9	−10	7
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1