Foggia v Potenza prediction · Serie C - Girone C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Foggia 1–3 Potenza POTENZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Potenza win~~42%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Potenza win at 42%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Potenza 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
4′Little has changed for our model: Potenza 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–26–43
21′15′ and it is 0–1: G. D'Auria on the scoresheet for Potenza. 0–1 · 11–19–69
25′15′ and it is 0–1: G. D'Auria on the scoresheet for Potenza. 0–1 · 11–19–70
27′15′ and it is 0–1: G. D'Auria on the scoresheet for Potenza. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Foggia 0–1 Potenza
46′Potenza ahead on 32′ through G. D'Auria. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Foggia
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Foggia 0–2 Potenza · G. D'Auria
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Foggia 0–1 Potenza
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' M. Ravasio · Foggia
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Foggia · On: E. Oviszach · Off: P. Luciani
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Foggia · On: A. Gallo · Off: F. Zuccon
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Potenza win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Foggia 0–2 Potenza · G. D'Auria
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Foggia 0–2 Potenza
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Foggia 0–3 Potenza · L. Petrungaro
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Foggia 0–3 Potenza
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foggia · On: F. Del Sole · Off: G. Panico
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' Foggia 0–3 Potenza
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Potenza · On: A. Franzolini · Off: M. Ghisolfi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Potenza · On: J. Murano · Off: G. Selleri
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Potenza · On: J. Murano · Off: G. Selleri
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Potenza · On: M. Manfredonia · Off: A. Bando
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Potenza · On: N. Bruschi · Off: L. Petrungaro
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Foggia 1–3 Potenza · A. Smeraldi
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Foggia 1–3 Potenza
FTFULL TIME Foggia 1–3 Potenza
FTFoggia 1–3 Potenza · Potenza win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Foggia win32%

Draw26%

Potenza win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueStadio Pino Zaccheria

RefereeG. Vailati

Line-ups

Foggia

Potenza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Foggia

Potenza

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
10	Foggia	8	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Foggia

Formation not confirmed

22 G. Saro

3 M. Seck

21 F. Berra

6 D. Di Pasquale

2 G. Todisco

14 F. Zuccon

16 H. Haoudi

11 F. Petito

17 G. Panico

91 M. Ravasio

18 P. Luciani

Coach · Gaetano Auteri

Substitutes

80 · A. Testa

12 · D. Marfella

33 · T. Azarovs

19 · M. Rinaldo

51 · C. Parisy

8 · M. Coulibaly

4 · A. Gallo

7 · E. Oviszach

37 · V. Ngana

56 · E. Chiara

10 · F. Del Sole

29 · Y. Merdji

28 · I. Toure

32 · A. Smeraldi

79 · N. Clerge

Potenza

Formation not confirmed

17 T. Cucchietti

26 N. Kirwan

6 G. Loiacono

47 R. Bura

3 L. Russo

8 M. Castorani

24 A. Bando

77 M. Ghisolfi

30 L. Petrungaro

70 G. Selleri

10 G. D'Auria

Coach · Ivan Tisci

Substitutes

1 · D. Franchi

12 · C. Gironi

25 · C. Staver

35 · D. Giannini

98 · C. Adjapong

2 · N. Verza

21 · M. Manfredonia

14 · A. Franzolini

18 · G. Gorga

9 · J. Murano

11 · L. Mazzeo

7 · N. Bruschi

80 · P. Matheu

89 · M. Paolino

Our number · potenza winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Potenza a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · potenza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Foggia win	32%	39%	−8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Potenza win	42%	32%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+2
Foggia or draw	58%	68%	−10
Foggia clean sheet	22%	–	–
Potenza clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.9 8.5 6.9 3.6 1 7.1 12.1 8.6 4.5 2 5.0 7.4 5.5 2.9 3 2.2 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Foggia down, Potenza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,960 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Foggia at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Potenza away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Foggia, 1.54 for Potenza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOG 0–1 POT · POT 3–0 FOG · FOG 3–4 POT · POT 1–1 FOG

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

FOGGIA

LLDLWW0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–0

POTENZA

WLDWWW1–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	8	+5	18
4	Casertana	9	+2	15
5	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
6	Catania	8	+4	13
7	Salernitana	8	+2	12
8	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
9	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	7	−1	10
14	Savoia	9	−1	10
15	Casarano	8	−3	10
16	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2