Foggia v Cavese prediction · Serie C - Girone C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FoggiaDrawCavese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cavese 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cavese just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Foggia 33%, draw 30%, Cavese 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Foggia v CaveseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Foggia win33%

Draw30%

Cavese win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Pino Zaccheria

RefereeG. Renzi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Foggia

Cavese

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
15	Foggia	10	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make Cavese a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Foggia v Cavese~~1.11 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~15 v 7

~~The market · Cavese win~~29% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cavese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Foggia win	33%	43%	−10
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Cavese win	37%	29%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Foggia or draw	63%	71%	−8
Foggia clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cavese clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.1 11.0 7.2 2.9 1 10.1 13.8 7.7 3.1 2 6.1 7.1 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Foggia down, Cavese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,982 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Foggia at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cavese away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Foggia, 1.21 for Cavese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAV 0–0 FOG · FOG 0–0 CAV · FOG 0–1 CAV · CAV 2–1 FOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

FOGGIA

DLWWLL0–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

CAVESE

LLWWDW2–3 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Casertana	11	+2	17
6	Catania	10	+6	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	10	−2	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Casarano	10	−6	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1