Crotone v Casarano prediction · Serie C - Girone C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CrotoneDrawCasarano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Crotone 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crotone are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crotone 55%, draw 23%, Casarano 22%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Crotone v CasaranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Crotone win55%

Draw23%

Casarano win22%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Ezio Scida

RefereeN. Dorillo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crotone

Casarano

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Casarano	10	−6	11
20	Crotone	10	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crotone winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market44%

Us55%

~~Market~~44%

We make Crotone a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crotone v Casarano~~1.98 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 11~~20 v 17

~~The market · Crotone win~~44% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crotone win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crotone win	55%	44%	+11
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Casarano win	22%	29%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	52%	+9
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	75%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	39%	31%	+8
Crotone or draw	78%	71%	+7
Crotone clean sheet	31%	–	–
Casarano clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 4.5 3.0 1 7.9 10.5 5.7 2.3 2 8.3 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.5 6.2 3.7 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crotone down, Casarano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,982 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crotone at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Casarano away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Crotone, 1.18 for Casarano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAS 1–2 CRO · CRO 2–0 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

CROTONE

LDWLLD0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

CASARANO

WDLLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	11	+4	20
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Scafatese	10	+3	17
6	Casertana	11	+2	17
7	Catania	10	+6	16
8	Cavese	10	+3	15
9	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	10	+1	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	11	−3	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Savoia	11	−5	11
17	Casarano	10	−6	11
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	11	−14	6
20	Crotone	10	−5	1