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Crotone v Audace Cerignola

Crotone

2–3Full time

Audace Cerignola

Serie C - Girone C · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Ezio Scida

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Crotone 2–3 Audace Cerignola CROTONE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crotone win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crotone win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Crotone was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Crotone v Audace Cerignola
19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Crotone
20′We said Crotone at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Crotone 0–1 Audace Cerignola
20′⚽ GOAL · 21' Crotone 0–1 Audace Cerignola
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Crotone win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Audace Cerignola win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Crotone win 21%)
25′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Crotone · On: Z. Ruggiero · Off: E. Brignola
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Sellaf · Audace Cerignola
40′G. Vitale scores for Audace Cerignola on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Crotone win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Crotone 0–2 Audace Cerignola · G. Vitale
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Crotone 0–2 Audace Cerignola
45′SECOND HALF Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Crotone 0–3 Audace Cerignola · L. D'Orazio
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Audace Cerignola · On: O. Moreso · Off: M. Sellaf
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Crotone · On: W. Feola · Off: A. Musso Corrected
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola · C. Padula
47′⚽ GOAL · 49' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola
47′🟨 YELLOW · 20' E. Brignola · Crotone
47′⚽ GOAL · 21' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola · G. Vitale (assist C. Cretella)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Crotone · On: Z. Ruggiero · Off: E. Brignola
47′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Sellaf · Audace Cerignola
47′⚽ GOAL · 44' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola · L. D'Orazio
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola · A. Musso
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Audace Cerignola · On: O. Moreso · Off: M. Sellaf
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Crotone · On: W. Feola · Off: A. Musso Corrected
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Crotone 1–3 Audace Cerignola · C. Padula
50′A. Musso scores for Crotone on 45′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Crotone win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Crotone
56′We said Crotone at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' F. Grosso · Crotone
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' O. Moreso · Audace Cerignola
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Crotone
76′77′ and it is 2–3: G. J. Tanco on the scoresheet for Crotone. 2–3 · 2–17–81
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Crotone · On: M. Tordini · Off: K. Barcella
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Audace Cerignola · On: G. Volpe · Off: L. D'Orazio
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Audace Cerignola · On: K. Miranda · Off: C. Cretella
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Crotone 2–3 Audace Cerignola
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' F. Crapisto · Crotone
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Audace Cerignola · On: A. Kurti · Off: A. Silvestro
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Audace Cerignola
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Crotone · On: B. Stauciuc · Off: M. Zunno
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Audace Cerignola
92′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Audace Cerignola · On: M. Nanula · Off: A. Vinciguerra
FTFULL TIME Crotone 2–3 Audace Cerignola
FTCrotone 2–3 Audace Cerignola · Crotone win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Crotone win48%

Draw25%

Audace Cerignola win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Stadio Ezio Scida

Referee · G. Renzi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Crotone

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Pio Martino

63 A. Veltri

13 N. Armini

26 G. J. Tanco

25 W. Guerra

99 F. Crapisto

80 F. Grosso

37 K. Barcella

11 E. Brignola

10 A. Musso

96 M. Zunno

Coach · Leandro Greco

Substitutes

22 · A. Lucano

23 · F. Groppelli

74 · E. Bashi

19 · W. Feola

44 · L. Pierangeli

83 · Z. Ruggiero

5 · L. Russo

79 · G. Terrasi

31 · P. Rodriguez

8 · I. Torres

17 · D. Russo

18 · M. Tordini

7 · B. Stauciuc

Audace Cerignola

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Viola

55 M. Cocorocchio

23 A. Gasbarro

24 A. Romano

37 A. Silvestro

58 C. Cretella

68 M. Sellaf

4 G. Vitale

7 A. Vinciguerra

10 L. D'Orazio

14 C. Padula

Coach · Raimondo Catalano

Substitutes

1 · A. Vailati

44 · K. Miranda

2 · A. Kurti

99 · C. Parlato

8 · O. Moreso

18 · C. Guaragna

80 · G. Seminari

19 · A. Iorio

17 · F. Amiranda

11 · G. Volpe

33 · M. Perlingieri

77 · M. Pinotti

20 · M. Nanula

21 · M. Casarosa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Crotone

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Pio Martino

63 A. Veltri

13 N. Armini

26 G. J. Tanco

25 W. Guerra

99 F. Crapisto

80 F. Grosso

37 K. Barcella

11 E. Brignola

10 A. Musso

96 M. Zunno

Coach · Leandro Greco

Substitutes

22 · A. Lucano

23 · F. Groppelli

74 · E. Bashi

19 · W. Feola

44 · L. Pierangeli

83 · Z. Ruggiero

5 · L. Russo

79 · G. Terrasi

31 · P. Rodriguez

8 · I. Torres

17 · D. Russo

18 · M. Tordini

7 · B. Stauciuc

Audace Cerignola

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Viola

55 M. Cocorocchio

23 A. Gasbarro

24 A. Romano

37 A. Silvestro

58 C. Cretella

68 M. Sellaf

4 G. Vitale

7 A. Vinciguerra

10 L. D'Orazio

14 C. Padula

Coach · Raimondo Catalano

Substitutes

1 · A. Vailati

44 · K. Miranda

2 · A. Kurti

99 · C. Parlato

8 · O. Moreso

18 · C. Guaragna

80 · G. Seminari

19 · A. Iorio

17 · F. Amiranda

11 · G. Volpe

33 · M. Perlingieri

77 · M. Pinotti

20 · M. Nanula

21 · M. Casarosa

Our number · crotone winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Crotone a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crotone win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Audace Cerignola win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Crotone or draw	73%	–	–
Crotone clean sheet	31%	–	–
Audace Cerignola clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 6.3 4.1 1 9.0 11.8 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.4 5.1 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crotone down, Audace Cerignola across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,956 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crotone at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Audace Cerignola away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Crotone, 1.19 for Audace Cerignola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CRO 3–1 AUD · AUD 2–0 CRO · CRO 2–1 AUD · AUD 1–1 CRO

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

CROTONE

DDLDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

AUDACE CERIGNOLA

WWLDLD2–0 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Sorrento	8	+5	18
3	Bari	8	+5	16
4	Catania	8	+4	13
5	Salernitana	8	+2	12
6	SS Monopoli	8	+2	12
7	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
8	Casertana	8	0	12
9	Audace Cerignola	8	+4	11
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	6	0	10
14	Casarano	8	−3	10
15	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
16	Savoia	8	−2	7
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	7	−4	7
19	Crotone	8	−4	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2