Home › Football › Serie C - Girone C › Cavese v Casarano

Cavese v Casarano

Cavese

5–2Full time

Casarano

Serie C - Girone C · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Simonetta Lamberti

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Cavese 5–2 Casarano CAVESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cavese win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.454

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cavese win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cavese was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Cavese v Casarano
17′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–10
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Cavese 1–0 Casarano
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
19′Cavese ahead on 18′ through G. Fella. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Cavese
26′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–2
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cavese 2–0 Casarano
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 91% now
27′A goal for Cavese on 26′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
37′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
37′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–18–7
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Cavese 2–1 Casarano
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
38′Casarano score on 38′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–18–7
45′SECOND HALF Cavese 2–2 Casarano
46′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–18–6
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Cavese 3–2 Casarano
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
47′A goal for Cavese on 47′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 76–18–6
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cavese · On: E. Minaj · Off: G. Fella
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Casarano · On: S. Negro · Off: M. Obleac
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cavese · On: F. Maiolo · Off: T. Mannucci
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Casarano
50′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 34–43–23 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Cavese
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cavese 2–2 Casarano
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cavese win 34%)
51′Casarano find the net on 45′. 2–2. 2–2 · 36–40–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
51′HALF-TIME Cavese 2–2 Casarano
57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Cavese · On: E. Visconti · Off: G. Esposito
60′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Casarano · On: C. Cuzzarella · Off: N. Zanellato
66′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it 97%. 4–2 · 97–2–0
66′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 97–2–0
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Casarano
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Cavese 4–2 Casarano
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Cavese win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
67′Cavese score on 67′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Casarano · On: V. Leonetti · Off: F. Palumbo
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Casarano
79′We published Cavese at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 5–2 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Cavese 5–2 Casarano
80′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
80′Cavese find the net on 80′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Casarano · On: L. Versienti · Off: E. Matino
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Casarano · R. Maiello · Casarano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cavese · On: P. Asiatico · Off: S. Sava
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cavese · On: T. Alberti · Off: G. Fusco
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Casarano
96′Full time, 5–2. We called Cavese at 45% — that one lands. 5–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cavese 5–2 Casarano
FTCavese 5–2 Casarano · Cavese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cavese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cavese 45%, draw 27%, Casarano 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cavese v CasaranoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cavese win45%

Draw27%

Casarano win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 10

VenueStadio Simonetta Lamberti

RefereeL. Maccarini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cavese

Casarano

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Cavese	9	0	12
14	Casarano	9	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Cavese a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cavese v Casarano~~1.49 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~12 v 14

~~The market · Cavese win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cavese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cavese win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Casarano win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Cavese or draw	72%	72%	0
Cavese clean sheet	33%	–	–
Casarano clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 7.6 4.6 1 10.3 12.8 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.8 4.9 3 4.1 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cavese down, Casarano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cavese at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Casarano away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Cavese, 1.11 for Casarano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CAV 1–1 CAS · CAS 3–0 CAV · CAV 3–0 CAS · CAS 1–1 CAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept

CAVESE

DLLWWD0–0 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

CASARANO

WWDLLD3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	10	+13	25
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	10	+6	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
7	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
8	Scafatese	9	+2	14
9	Salernitana	10	+2	14
10	Inter U23	9	+1	13
11	AZ Picerno	9	0	12
12	Cavese	9	0	12
13	Foggia	9	−1	11
14	Casarano	9	−3	11
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Barletta	9	−3	8
17	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
18	Giugliano	9	−10	7
19	Cosenza	9	−12	5
20	Crotone	9	−5	0