Catania v Giugliano prediction · Serie C - Girone C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CataniaDrawGiugliano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Catania 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Catania are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Catania 65%, draw 21%, Giugliano 13%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Catania v GiuglianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Catania win65%

Draw21%

Giugliano win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Angelo Massimino

RefereeL. Di Mario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Catania

Giugliano

8Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Catania	10	+6	16
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · catania winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

65% The market68%

Us65%

~~Market~~68%

We make Catania a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Catania v Giugliano~~2.07 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~7 v 18

~~The market · Catania win~~68% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Catania win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Catania win	65%	68%	−3
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Giugliano win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Catania or draw	87%	88%	−1
Catania clean sheet	45%	–	–
Giugliano clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 4.1 1 11.2 10.0 3.8 2 11.9 9.3 3.7 3 8.2 6.4 2.5 4 4.3 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Catania down, Giugliano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,982 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Catania at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Giugliano away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Catania, 0.80 for Giugliano. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CAT 1–0 GIU · GIU 0–3 CAT · CAT 3–2 GIU · CAT 3–1 GIU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

CATANIA

WDWWWL4–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

GIUGLIANO

WLWLLW5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	11	+4	20
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Scafatese	10	+3	17
6	Casertana	11	+2	17
7	Catania	10	+6	16
8	Cavese	10	+3	15
9	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	10	+1	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	11	−3	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Savoia	11	−5	11
17	Casarano	10	−6	11
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	11	−14	6
20	Crotone	10	−5	1