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Casertana v SS Monopoli

Casertana

3–1Full time

SS Monopoli

Serie C - Girone C · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Alberto Pinto

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Casertana 3–1 SS Monopoli CASERTANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Casertana win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Casertana win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Casertana v SS Monopoli
2′Little has changed for our model: Casertana 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Casertana
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Casertana 0–1 SS Monopoli
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Casertana 0–1 SS Monopoli
21′SS Monopoli ahead on 20′ through L. Vido. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Casertana win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' SS Monopoli win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Casertana win 15%)
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Casertana 1–1 SS Monopoli · F. Vezzoni
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' G. Rocchi · Casertana
41′F. Vezzoni scores for Casertana on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–43–22
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Casertana win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was SS Monopoli win 22%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli · F. Vezzoni
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli
45′SECOND HALF Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Casertana · On: F. Belli · Off: G. Favale
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Casertana · On: A. Caporale · Off: G. Rocchi
48′45′ and it is 2–1: J. Manconi on the scoresheet for Casertana. 2–1 · 79–17–4
48′HALF-TIME Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Casertana win: 43% at kick-off, 79% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Casertana win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 9' G. Favale · Casertana
50′⚽ GOAL · 20' Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli · L. Vido
50′⚽ GOAL · 35' Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli · F. Vezzoni (assist S. Oukhadda)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 38' G. Rocchi · Casertana
50′⚽ GOAL · 46' Casertana 2–1 SS Monopoli · J. Manconi
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Casertana · On: F. Belli · Off: G. Favale
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Casertana · On: A. Caporale · Off: G. Rocchi
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' SS Monopoli
56′We said Casertana at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' SS Monopoli
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SS Monopoli · On: A. Capone · Off: L. Vido
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SS Monopoli · On: M. Sardo · Off: E. Olivieri
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' SS Monopoli · On: E. Scipioni · Off: C. Battocchio
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Casertana · On: E. Piovanello · Off: A. Bentivegna
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Casertana · On: D. Mehic · Off: S. Girelli
76′⚽ GOAL · 74' Casertana 3–1 SS Monopoli · J. Manconi (assist E. Piovanello)
79′Casertana ahead on 74′ through J. Manconi. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Casertana win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SS Monopoli · On: F. Gioielli · Off: J. Greco
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SS Monopoli · On: M. Belli · Off: F. Tosi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Casertana · On: F. Di Tacchio · Off: S. Pezzella
FTFULL TIME Casertana 3–1 SS Monopoli
FTCasertana 3–1 SS Monopoli · Casertana win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Casertana win43%

Draw31%

SS Monopoli win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Stadio Alberto Pinto

Referee · D. Gandino

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Casertana

Formation not confirmed

1 V. De Lucia

23 P. Martino

33 G. Rocchi

11 G. Favale

18 S. Oukhadda

8 S. Girelli

16 S. Pezzella

21 F. Vezzoni

9 D. Castelli

20 A. Bentivegna

10 J. Manconi

Coach · Roberto Stellone

Substitutes

22 · F. Magro

12 · S. Luca

24 · F. Belli

4 · I. Kontek

17 · A. Caporale

32 · F. Di Tacchio

27 · M. Sandri

5 · D. Mehic

7 · E. Piovanello

19 · M. Colley

14 · J. Ajayi

SS Monopoli

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Tommasi

16 B. Valenti

6 S. Piccinini

33 E. Olivieri

23 C. Cerretti

19 R. Calcagni

8 C. Battocchio

15 J. Greco

14 F. Tosi

28 L. Vido

10 M. Fall

Coach · Alberto Colombo

Substitutes

1 · M. Albertazzi

12 · C. Sibilano

2 · R. Pucino

13 · M. Colombara

11 · M. Belli

61 · L. Garritano

72 · A. Cortinovis

18 · S. Paukstys

60 · F. Gioielli

7 · A. Capone

21 · E. Scipioni

20 · M. Sardo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Casertana

Formation not confirmed

1 V. De Lucia

23 P. Martino

33 G. Rocchi

11 G. Favale

18 S. Oukhadda

8 S. Girelli

16 S. Pezzella

21 F. Vezzoni

9 D. Castelli

20 A. Bentivegna

10 J. Manconi

Coach · Roberto Stellone

Substitutes

22 · F. Magro

12 · S. Luca

24 · F. Belli

4 · I. Kontek

17 · A. Caporale

32 · F. Di Tacchio

27 · M. Sandri

5 · D. Mehic

7 · E. Piovanello

19 · M. Colley

14 · J. Ajayi

SS Monopoli

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Tommasi

16 B. Valenti

6 S. Piccinini

33 E. Olivieri

23 C. Cerretti

19 R. Calcagni

8 C. Battocchio

15 J. Greco

14 F. Tosi

28 L. Vido

10 M. Fall

Coach · Alberto Colombo

Substitutes

1 · M. Albertazzi

12 · C. Sibilano

2 · R. Pucino

13 · M. Colombara

11 · M. Belli

61 · L. Garritano

72 · A. Cortinovis

18 · S. Paukstys

60 · F. Gioielli

7 · A. Capone

21 · E. Scipioni

20 · M. Sardo

Our number · casertana winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Casertana a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casertana win	43%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
SS Monopoli win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Casertana or draw	75%	–	–
Casertana clean sheet	43%	–	–
SS Monopoli clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.0 10.2 4.7 1 14.6 13.5 5.5 2 9.2 7.6 3.3 3 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casertana down, SS Monopoli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,956 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casertana at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SS Monopoli away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Casertana, 0.85 for SS Monopoli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAS 2–1 SSM · SSM 1–1 CAS · SSM 1–0 CAS · CAS 0–0 SSM

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

CASERTANA

DWWDLL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

SS MONOPOLI

LWDDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Sorrento	8	+5	18
3	Bari	8	+5	16
4	Catania	8	+4	13
5	Salernitana	8	+2	12
6	SS Monopoli	8	+2	12
7	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
8	Casertana	8	0	12
9	Audace Cerignola	8	+4	11
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	6	0	10
14	Casarano	8	−3	10
15	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
16	Savoia	8	−2	7
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	7	−4	7
19	Crotone	8	−4	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2