Home › Football › Serie C - Girone C › Casertana v Bari

Casertana v Bari

Casertana

1–1Full time

Bari

Serie C - Girone C · FRI 23 OCT · Stadio Alberto Pinto

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Casertana 1–1 Bari CASERTANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Casertana win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.720

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Casertana win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Casertana was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Casertana v Bari
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bari
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Casertana win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Casertana 0–0 Bari
46′We published Casertana at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Casertana 1–0 Bari
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Casertana win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 46%)
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5
48′47′: J. Manconi on the scoresheet for Casertana, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bari · On: G. Gomez · Off: A. Tribuzzi
49′HALF-TIME Casertana 0–0 Bari
49′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Casertana · On: P. Martino · Off: F. Belli
53′We published Casertana at 39%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Casertana 2–0 Bari
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
54′Casertana find the net on 53′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' Casertana
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Bari · On: V. Prisco · Off: L. Grgic
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Casertana
67′We said Casertana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–62–17
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Casertana 1–1 Bari
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 21% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Casertana win 82%)
68′Bari find the net on 67′. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–63–17
69′We said Casertana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–16
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Casertana · On: S. Girelli · Off: F. Di Tacchio
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Casertana · On: A. Bentivegna · Off: S. Oukhadda
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Casertana · On: G. Rocchi · Off: A. Caporale
76′We said Casertana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
82′We said Casertana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Casertana win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bari · On: R. Burgio · Off: M. Anzolin
89′We said Casertana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Casertana · On: S. Pezzella · Off: F. Vezzoni
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bari · On: A. Celli · Off: M. Della Morte
95′Full time, 1–1. We called Casertana at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Bari
FTFULL TIME Casertana 1–1 Bari
FTCasertana 1–1 Bari · Casertana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Casertana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casertana 39%, draw 31%, Bari 30%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Casertana v BariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Casertana win39%

Draw31%

Bari win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Alberto Pinto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casertana

Bari

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bari	10	+7	20
6	Casertana	10	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · casertana winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Casertana a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Casertana v Bari~~1.17 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~6 v 2

~~The market · Casertana win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Casertana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casertana win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Bari win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	64%	71%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Casertana or draw	70%	67%	+3
Casertana clean sheet	37%	–	–
Bari clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.9 10.7 5.8 2.0 1 12.4 13.7 6.4 2.2 2 7.7 7.5 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casertana down, Bari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,977 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Casertana at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bari away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Casertana, 1.00 for Bari. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

CASERTANA

WDLLWD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

BARI

DWWLWD0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	10	+13	25
2	Bari	10	+7	20
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Catania	10	+6	16
6	Casertana	10	+2	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Barletta	10	−2	11
14	Foggia	10	−3	11
15	Casarano	10	−6	11
16	Team Altamura	10	−7	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1