Casarano v Salernitana prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Casarano 0–0 Salernitana CASARANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Casarano win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Casarano win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Casarano was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Casarano v Salernitana
2′Much as we predicted: Casarano was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
43′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Casarano · On: F. Palumbo · Off: V. Ferrara
45′SECOND HALF Casarano 0–0 Salernitana
46′HALF-TIME Casarano 0–0 Salernitana
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Casarano 1–0 Salernitana
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Casarano 1–0 Salernitana
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Casarano
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Chirico · Casarano
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Chirico · Casarano
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Casarano
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Casarano · On: B. Knezovic · Off: N. Zanellato
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Casarano · On: C. Cuzzarella · Off: G. Logoluso
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Casarano · E. Matino · Casarano
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Casarano
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Salernitana · On: E. Gyabuaa · Off: M. Tascone
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Salernitana · On: G. Longobardi · Off: K. de Boer
FTFULL TIME Casarano 0–0 Salernitana
FTCasarano 0–0 Salernitana · Casarano win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Casarano win42%

Draw26%

Salernitana win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Giuseppe Capozza

RefereeJ. Mbei

Line-ups

Casarano

Salernitana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Casarano

Salernitana

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Salernitana	8	+2	12
15	Casarano	8	−3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Casarano

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Farroni

2 P. Ciotti

36 E. Matino

33 M. Mercadante

3 F. Giraudo

11 V. Ferrara

17 R. Maiello

23 G. Logoluso

10 C. Chirico

9 F. Grandolfo

21 N. Zanellato

Coach · Vito Di Bari

Substitutes

1 · F. Bacchin

29 · B. Gyamfi

6 · M. Obleac

34 · S. Negro

7 · B. Knezovic

8 · A. N’Diaye

77 · F. Palumbo

27 · L. Versienti

30 · F. Podrini

46 · V. Leonetti

37 · C. Cuzzarella

Salernitana

Formation not confirmed

12 C. Galeotti

73 S. Pieraccini

5 D. Celiento

33 A. Anastasio

16 M. T. Llano Massa

32 M. Vitale

6 K. de Boer

8 M. Tascone

14 L. Villa

11 E. D'Ursi

10 F. Lescano

Coach · Serse Cosmi

Substitutes

1 · L. Cevers

19 · M. Capuano

3 · R. Zoia

28 · G. Longobardi

27 · A. Del Pin

4 · E. Gyabuaa

17 · M. Varela Djamanca

20 · A. La Gumina

77 · K. Cardoni

21 · L. Boncori

99 · M. Bevilacqua

Our number · casarano winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Casarano a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · casarano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casarano win	42%	33%	+8
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Salernitana win	32%	39%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−4
Casarano or draw	68%	61%	+7
Casarano clean sheet	28%	–	–
Salernitana clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 7.4 5.2 2.2 1 8.7 12.4 7.4 3.2 2 6.9 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.5 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casarano down, Salernitana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,960 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casarano at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Salernitana away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Casarano, 1.28 for Salernitana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 3–0 CAS · CAS 2–2 SAL

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

CASARANO

LWWDLL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

SALERNITANA

DWDWLW1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	8	+5	18
4	Casertana	9	+2	15
5	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
6	Catania	8	+4	13
7	Salernitana	8	+2	12
8	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
9	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	7	−1	10
14	Savoia	9	−1	10
15	Casarano	8	−3	10
16	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2