Barletta v Cavese prediction · Serie C - Girone C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:08

Barletta 1–1 Cavese BARLETTA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Barletta win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barletta win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barletta 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–29
9′Little has changed for our model: Barletta 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–28
28′G. Fusco scores for Cavese on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Barletta win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Cavese win 28%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Barletta win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Cavese win 28%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Cavese
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Barletta 1–1 Cavese · G. Fusco
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Barletta 1–1 Cavese
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Cavese win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Barletta win 15%)
45′SECOND HALF Barletta 1–1 Cavese
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cavese · On: F. D'Amore · Off: S. Sava
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cavese · On: T. Alberti · Off: E. Minaj
46′HALF-TIME Barletta 1–1 Cavese
46′⚽ GOAL · 28' Barletta 1–1 Cavese · G. Fusco
46′🟨 YELLOW · 31' E. Minaj · Cavese
46′⚽ GOAL · 33' Barletta 1–1 Cavese · A. Ferrante (assist A. Partipilo)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Barletta
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Cavese
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Barletta · On: C. Giardino · Off: A. Ferrante
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cavese · On: G. Fella · Off: G. Fusco
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cavese · On: G. Fiorin · Off: M. Macchi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cavese · On: G. Fiorin · Off: M. Macchi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Barletta · On: H. Djankpata · Off: S. Piarulli
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Barletta
FTFULL TIME Barletta 1–1 Cavese
FTBarletta 1–1 Cavese · Barletta win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

Barletta win44%

Draw28%

Cavese win28%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:30

VenueStadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli

RefereeN. Dorillo

Line-ups

Barletta

Cavese

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Barletta

Cavese

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cavese	8	0	11
17	Barletta	8	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barletta

Formation not confirmed

22 Figliola

6 M. Manetta

4 N. Bizzotto

72 A. Vona

70 G. Coccia

16 D. Franco

44 S. Piarulli

7 F. Laringe

10 A. Partipilo

9 A. Ferrante

19 Mateus da Silva

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Matosevic

3 · F. Tito

33 · S. Domanico

77 · M. A. Marini

5 · S. Rossoni

8 · R. Malfitano

42 · I. Voca

82 · H. Djankpata

17 · D. Distratto

27 · C. Giardino

11 · E. Ongaro

Cavese

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Boffelli

28 T. Mannucci

25 M. Peretti

17 F. Nunziata

77 M. Macchi

20 G. Esposito

5 T. Awua

11 S. Sava

24 F. Orlando

7 E. Minaj

82 G. Fusco

Coach · Cristiano Masitto

Substitutes

22 · M. Bertini

1 · R. Juwer

62 · F. D'Amore

2 · P. Asiatico

33 · M. Personeni

4 · E. Visconti

61 · F. Maiolo

47 · G. Fiorin

15 · I. Ponziglione

9 · T. Alberti

46 · G. Severino

10 · G. Fella

Our number · barletta winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Barletta a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barletta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barletta win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	28%	30%	−3
Cavese win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	39%	+7
Both teams to score	50%	46%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	64%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	25%	21%	+4
Barletta or draw	72%	69%	+3
Barletta clean sheet	34%	–	–
Cavese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 8.1 4.8 1 10.8 13.0 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.7 4.7 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barletta down, Cavese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,964 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Barletta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Cavese away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Barletta, 1.09 for Cavese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Serie C - Girone C since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

BARLETTA

DLDDLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

CAVESE

DDLLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	9	+12	22
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	9	+7	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
7	Scafatese	8	+2	13
8	Salernitana	9	+2	13
9	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
10	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Foggia	9	−1	11
13	Casarano	9	−3	11
14	Inter U23	7	−1	10
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2