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Barletta v AZ Picerno

Barletta

1–0Full time

AZ Picerno

Serie C - Girone C · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Barletta 1–0 AZ Picerno BARLETTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barletta win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.434

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barletta win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barletta 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Barletta v AZ Picerno
46′HALF-TIME Barletta 0–0 AZ Picerno
46′SECOND HALF Barletta 0–0 AZ Picerno
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barletta · On: S. Piarulli · Off: H. Djankpata
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Barletta win 35%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
53′We said Barletta at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–44–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–45–24
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' AZ Picerno · On: S. Pugliese · Off: S. Bianchi
60′We said Barletta at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' AZ Picerno · On: M. Scravaglieri · Off: P. Virgilio
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Barletta · On: E. Ongaro · Off: A. Ferrante
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' AZ Picerno
68′We said Barletta at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AZ Picerno · On: G. Coppola · Off: M. Kanoute
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AZ Picerno · On: D. Egharevba · Off: E. Esposito
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barletta · On: E. Ongaro · Off: A. Ferrante Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barletta · On: D. Distratto · Off: A. Partipilo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barletta · On: I. Voca · Off: D. Franco
75′We said Barletta at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–15
76′We said Barletta at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Barletta 1–0 AZ Picerno
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 86% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Barletta win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
78′Barletta score on 77′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 88% now
81′We said Barletta at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barletta · On: F. Tito · Off: F. Laringe
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Barletta win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Barletta at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′1–0 at the end. Our 44% on Barletta comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Barletta
FTFULL TIME Barletta 1–0 AZ Picerno
FTBarletta 1–0 AZ Picerno · Barletta win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barletta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barletta 44%, draw 27%, AZ Picerno 30%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Barletta v AZ PicernoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barletta win44%

Draw27%

AZ Picerno win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 10

VenueStadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli

RefereeG. Sacchi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barletta

AZ Picerno

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	AZ Picerno	9	0	12
16	Barletta	9	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barletta winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:39 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Barletta a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barletta v AZ Picerno~~1.53 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~16 v 11

~~The market · Barletta win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barletta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barletta win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	27%	29%	−2
AZ Picerno win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	47%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	27%	+3
Barletta or draw	70%	75%	−5
Barletta clean sheet	30%	–	–
AZ Picerno clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 7.2 4.8 1 9.1 12.5 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.4 2.2 3 3.8 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barletta down, AZ Picerno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barletta at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). AZ Picerno away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Barletta, 1.22 for AZ Picerno. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AZP 2–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept

BARLETTA

LDDLLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

AZ PICERNO

LLLWLL0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	10	+13	25
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	10	+6	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
7	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
8	Scafatese	9	+2	14
9	Salernitana	10	+2	14
10	Inter U23	9	+1	13
11	AZ Picerno	9	0	12
12	Cavese	9	0	12
13	Foggia	9	−1	11
14	Casarano	9	−3	11
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Barletta	9	−3	8
17	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
18	Giugliano	9	−10	7
19	Cosenza	9	−12	5
20	Crotone	9	−5	0