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Bari v Giugliano

Bari

2–0Full time

Giugliano

Serie C - Girone C · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio San Nicola

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Bari 2–0 Giugliano BARI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bari win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bari win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bari was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Bari v Giugliano
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Bari 1–0 Giugliano
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Bari 1–0 Giugliano
21′Bari ahead on 6′ through K. Butic. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bari win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Giugliano
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' G. Laezza · Giugliano
41′We published Bari at 58%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bari 2–0 Giugliano · K. Butic
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Bari 2–0 Giugliano
45′SECOND HALF Bari 2–0 Giugliano
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giugliano · On: G. Esposito · Off: R. Zammarini
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giugliano · On: S. La Vardera · Off: G. Laezza
50′G. Maggiore scores for Bari on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bari win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 6' Bari 2–0 Giugliano · K. Butic
52′🟨 YELLOW · 24' R. Zammarini · Giugliano
52′🟨 YELLOW · 31' G. Laezza · Giugliano
52′⚽ GOAL · 45' Bari 2–0 Giugliano · G. Maggiore
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giugliano · On: G. Esposito · Off: R. Zammarini
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giugliano · On: S. La Vardera · Off: G. Laezza
57′We published Bari at 58%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Bari win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Bari
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bari · On: F. Bianchi · Off: A. Tribuzzi
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Giugliano
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Giugliano · On: L. Peluso · Off: I. Varone
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Giugliano · On: A. Cimmaruta · Off: C. Panico
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Bari 2–0 Giugliano
80′We published Bari at 58%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bari · On: V. Prisco · Off: L. Grgic
FTFULL TIME Bari 2–0 Giugliano
FTBari 2–0 Giugliano · Bari win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bari win58%

Draw24%

Giugliano win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Stadio San Nicola

Referee · M. Pasculli

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bari

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Cerofolini

6 V. Mogos

72 N. Cocetta

79 M. Elia

14 M. Anzolin

44 L. Mendicino

8 L. Grgic

25 G. Maggiore

21 M. Della Morte

7 K. Butic

11 A. Tribuzzi

Coach · Massimo Rastelli

Substitutes

48 · Nicolas Andrade

12 · A. Mezzapesa

19 · M. Mane

32 · V. Colangiuli

95 · V. Prisco

27 · R. Burgio

77 · M. Esposito

24 · F. Bianchi

Giugliano

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bolletta

5 Pedro Justiniano

23 G. Laezza

24 M. Caldore

16 R. Improta

64 I. Varone

8 R. De Rosa

4 R. Zammarini

3 C. Panico

7 U. Galletta

10 I. Balde

Coach · Raffaele Napoli

Substitutes

12 · L. Santarelli

77 · S. Greco

26 · A. Minelli

33 · S. La Vardera

79 · G. Basile

6 · J. Broh

19 · A. Cimmaruta

30 · M. Borgnino

21 · L. Forciniti

44 · L. Peluso

31 · L. Giordano

78 · P. Silvestri

17 · G. Esposito

99 · S. Cuomo

86 · V. Ponte

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bari

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Cerofolini

6 V. Mogos

72 N. Cocetta

79 M. Elia

14 M. Anzolin

44 L. Mendicino

8 L. Grgic

25 G. Maggiore

21 M. Della Morte

7 K. Butic

11 A. Tribuzzi

Coach · Massimo Rastelli

Substitutes

48 · Nicolas Andrade

12 · A. Mezzapesa

19 · M. Mane

32 · V. Colangiuli

95 · V. Prisco

27 · R. Burgio

77 · M. Esposito

24 · F. Bianchi

Giugliano

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bolletta

5 Pedro Justiniano

23 G. Laezza

24 M. Caldore

16 R. Improta

64 I. Varone

8 R. De Rosa

4 R. Zammarini

3 C. Panico

7 U. Galletta

10 I. Balde

Coach · Raffaele Napoli

Substitutes

12 · L. Santarelli

77 · S. Greco

26 · A. Minelli

33 · S. La Vardera

79 · G. Basile

6 · J. Broh

19 · A. Cimmaruta

30 · M. Borgnino

21 · L. Forciniti

44 · L. Peluso

31 · L. Giordano

78 · P. Silvestri

17 · G. Esposito

99 · S. Cuomo

86 · V. Ponte

Our number · bari winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Bari a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bari win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Giugliano win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Bari or draw	83%	–	–
Bari clean sheet	43%	–	–
Giugliano clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.4 5.7 2.7 1 12.2 11.2 4.5 2 11.2 9.1 3.9 3 6.7 5.4 2.3 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bari down, Giugliano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,956 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bari at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Giugliano away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Bari, 0.85 for Giugliano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

BARI

WWDWWL1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

GIUGLIANO

LLLWLW3–4 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	8	+10	19
2	Sorrento	8	+5	18
3	Bari	8	+5	16
4	Catania	8	+4	13
5	Salernitana	8	+2	12
6	SS Monopoli	8	+2	12
7	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
8	Casertana	8	0	12
9	Audace Cerignola	8	+4	11
10	Foggia	8	+1	11
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Scafatese	7	+1	10
13	Inter U23	6	0	10
14	Casarano	8	−3	10
15	Team Altamura	8	−6	8
16	Savoia	8	−2	7
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	7	−4	7
19	Crotone	8	−4	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2