AZ Picerno v Salernitana prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AZ PicernoDrawSalernitana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · AZ Picerno 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AZ Picerno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AZ Picerno 41%, draw 28%, Salernitana 31%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on AZ Picerno v SalernitanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

AZ Picerno win41%

Draw28%

Salernitana win31%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 11

VenueStadio Comunale Donato Curcio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AZ Picerno

Salernitana

8Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · az picerno winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market29%

Us41%

~~Market~~29%

We make AZ Picerno a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AZ Picerno v Salernitana~~1.38 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~12 v 10

~~The market · AZ Picerno win~~29% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AZ Picerno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AZ Picerno win	41%	29%	+12
Draw	28%	28%	0
Salernitana win	31%	44%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
AZ Picerno or draw	69%	56%	+13
AZ Picerno clean sheet	32%	–	–
Salernitana clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.0 8.3 5.4 2.1 1 9.9 13.2 7.2 2.9 2 7.4 8.4 4.9 3 3.5 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AZ Picerno down, Salernitana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,982 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AZ Picerno at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Salernitana away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for AZ Picerno, 1.17 for Salernitana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 2–1 AZP · AZP 1–2 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 15 Sept

AZ PICERNO

LLWLLL2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

SALERNITANA

DWLWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	11	+13	26
2	Bari	11	+7	21
3	Sorrento	10	+4	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	+9	17
5	Casertana	11	+2	17
6	Catania	10	+6	16
7	Cavese	10	+3	15
8	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
9	Scafatese	9	+2	14
10	Salernitana	10	+2	14
11	Inter U23	9	+1	13
12	AZ Picerno	10	−1	12
13	Team Altamura	11	−7	12
14	Barletta	10	−2	11
15	Foggia	10	−3	11
16	Casarano	10	−6	11
17	Savoia	10	−5	10
18	Giugliano	10	−8	10
19	Cosenza	10	−14	5
20	Crotone	10	−5	1